Intimidation by Consensus

Intimidation by Consensus
By Sam Onimisi

It is no longer news that a seventeen-man wise men is working to ensure that a consensual candidate emerge from among the several Presidential aspirants from the North. The purpose is to stop or defeat President Goodluck Jonathan in the forthcoming PDP primaries and to retain power in the North according to their reading of the so-called gentleman’s rotational agreement of the Party. The contenders, former President Ibrahim Babangida, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar (both of who spent 8 years each on the job), perennial National Security Adviser Mohammed Aliyu Gusau, and Governor Abubakar Saraki – all of the PDP. If it is a PDP Committee, the wise men may not reckon with General Muhammadu Buhari of CPC, Alh. Shekarau of ANPP and Ex-EFCC Chief Nuhu Ribadu of ACN. If it is a bi-partisan committee, then they have about eight contenders to deal with, if Alh. Bashir Tofa is not a joking aspirant. This is no doubt an intimidating list.

The first task is to assume that the wise men will limit themselves to the PDP Candidates if the purpose is to defeat President Jonathan in the primaries. And then to extend their search to other parties, if inspite of the gang-up, Jonathan emerge victorious in the primaries. What is the combined weight of the four PDP Northern contenders when stacked against Goodluck? Formidable! Not so much for their electability but much more for their potentials for mischief – and this is so because in every gang-up, the major aim is to harm or destroy the chances of the common opponent. In this instance, the driving force of the gang-up is regional interest, which when stripped of its niceties translates to Hausa/Fulani Islamic interest. Don’t bother about the frenzied denial that is bound to trail this assertion, for it is all part of the game of deceit in politics.
Admittedly, any group of individuals is free to propagate regional interest of any religious hue, provided it does no harm to the corporate interest of the country. The danger lies in the fact that in the pursuit of personal or group interest, recourse is often made to the highly emotive question of religion as most of the Northern aspirants treats the Presidency as their zonal patrimony; and how previous administrations have used it to cause disunity among the multi-religious citizens of Nigeria. So, when we refer to a gang-up and their potential for mischief, what we are saying is the likelihood that those champions of religious or regional interest may be so carried away by personal or group greed that they may not be able to draw a line between reason and remonstrance. Not that they actually represent the North or the regions yearnings and aspirations, but that is what they project that has become the public perception of power rotation or zoning.

The leading Presidential aspirants are all military or Para-military men. Gen. Ibrahim Babangida is well-known for his pride as a practitioner of violence and example abound throughout his eight years reign as military President. Gen. Mohammed Aliyu Gusau is an Intelligence Czar whose smooth operation or modus operandi entails state violence. Alh. Atiku Abubakar was a Customs Officer and in his hay-days in the PDP, was the arrow head of the violent wing of the Party. Now that he is more or less outside the mainstream of the Party, his desperation may know no bound-that is, in his quest to pick-up the Party’s ticket. As for Governor Abubakar Saraki, he is overwhelmed by his antecedent as a son of a ruthless political godfather whose stock-in-trade is monopoly as evident in their total capture of Kwara State. The older Saraki is obsessed by the ambition of having his son as president of Nigeria and his daughter as governor of Kwara State. But is this country Saraki & Saraki Nigeria Unlimited?

Outside the PDP, General Muhammadu Buhari, a former military head of state and Presidential candidate-in-waiting of the Congress for Progressive Change, CPC has left no one in doubt that his party is poised as successor to PDP, come 2011. Having failed twice in the past (2003 and 2007), there is the possibility that he gets desperate this third time, as it may be his last chance, given his age and record of failure in the past. Nuhu Ribadu retired as Assistant Inspector General of Police and Chairman of EFCC. The difference between the army and the police is the type of weapon they carry, both of which is deployed to the same effect against their perceived enemy.

Given the background of these Northern Presidential contestants who are in four different parties, it will be pretty difficult though not impossible for the North to come up with a consensus candidate. Since the candidate must come from one party, it means that the voting masses of the North will be asked to change party loyalty to regional allegiance. And because the North is now polarized by zoning, the pro-zoning section may have to recourse to a more homogenous issue in their part of the North if the masses is to be carried along. Of course, that issue is religion. Meanwhile, the North has always been a hotbed of ethno-religious mayhem – a challenge to which even previous heads of state from the region directly or indirectly helped to pose. In recent times and on several occasions, it has manifested itself through eruptions of the local chapter of the dreaded Al-queda, the Taliban or the Boko Haram extremists – from whom nothing soothing is expected.

By their status as retired senior public office holders, we have a right to expect that the aforementioned contestants or the consensus candidate will be a responsible person(s) who will not employ the emotive issue of religion or manipulate it for personal advantage. But this is mere expectation for which there is no guarantee beyond verbal assurance from the mouth and not necessarily of the heart. Having witnessed what they did with religion while in office, there is little or no hope that they will not employ it again to intimidate their opponents and by consequence, harm the polity. Whichever party produced the consensus Northern candidate, the prospect for trouble remains the same.

Given the condemnable showing of the Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta, MEND (or is it a fake version of it?) in Abuja during the 50th Independence Anniversary, they may very well supply the balance of terror if they choose to counter-act or confront the Northern Islamic militants for electoral advantage. If this will not check the intimidation by consensus, neither will Prof. Jega’s reputation as a radical do the trick – which leaves us with the question: what type of election do we expect in 2011?