WILL THERE BE ELECTION IN 2011?

During his maiden visit to the United States of America as acting President, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan promised to sanitize the Nigeria’s electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission INEC as a prelude to an electoral reform. President Yar’Adua had made the same promise and in fact, set up the Justice Uwais Committee whose report government have mutilated with a White Paper.

Given the fact that Jonathan’s regime is a continuation of the P.D.P’s government initially headed by the Late President Yar’Adua, it could be said that nothing has changed both in character and contents of a regime which admitted that they rigged themselves into power. We all know that there is always a long journey between a promise and its fulfillment, depending on the integrity of he who made the promise.

No one can honestly vouch for President Jonathan’s integrity with regards to political fidelity since his track-record does not contain a national outlook. Even at the regional level, he was not a frontline leader as Deputy Governor of Bayelsa State and was made a Governor after a disgraceful impeachment process of his boss.

The implication is that we are having a President, whose ascension to power at each level was based on dubious premises, having become so on the doctrine of necessity! That he was now made so upon the death of Yar’Adua has not made his rise to power a conventional one. But this is not a commentary on his personal character.

Now, the question: will President Jonathan reform the electoral process before the 2011 election? My answer is: There will be some cosmetic reform but not good enough to give the country a free and fair election. This is because the character and behavior of the ruling People’s Democratic Party in its 12 years hold on power does not give any reasonable person the hope that they really want a reform.

Again, if President Jonathan is going to run in the race of 2011, he would not be committed to a wholistic electoral reform. And all index points to the possibility that he will run, and so no one should expect him to do anything that will not confer advantages on him and his party.

The truth is that Professor Maurice Iwu has dealt a mortal blow on the integrity of INEC, and bastardize the institution so much that it is incapable of conducting a good and acceptable election. There are three reasons for this. The first is the level of corruption which has permeated the entire commission by way of orientation of the personnel, inflation of contracts, poor quality of materials, out-right bribery and misappropriation of public funds.

The second reason is its politicization. All Commissioners and Chairman were card-carrying members of PDP. Will the senior administrative personnel be any different? Every process is influenced by, and manipulated to favour the PDP. The perception of the average Nigerian is that INEC as presently constituted can never conduct free and fair election. This perception is buttressed by INEC’s track records and therefore, unless there is a complete overhaul and reform of the process and the institution, this perception remains very correct and legitimate.

The third reason is that there can be no free and fair election in the absence of a good voters list; and there is no such thing as a voters register as what they have is a concoction of fictitious names not related to anyone that exists. INEC has four years to compile a good voter’s register but because they always want to create roadblocks, bobby traps and silly excuses to enable them rig elections in favour of their own party, nothing was done on the voters register until now. Even when they attempted to recruit registration officers in March 2010, their administrative ineptitude was on display as they aborted the exercise due to poor logistics and planning. An organization which cannot handle its own recruitment exercise, a mere routine work, can certainly not handle a massive general election!.

By the 2006 Electoral Act, registration and update of voters is expected to be a daily and routine exercise and INEC had between 2007 and 2010 to have made ready an accurate voter’s register for 2011 election. Eight months to the election, no one can say when and how a good voters list can be made by INEC. Obviously, any such register at this time will be worse than useless because it will be a product of abracadabra, as usual.

In as much as God will not come down to do voters list and conduct election for us and since those who are legally charged to do so refuses to do it, when shall we have a good election?

As usual, regional, religious and ethnic power blocks are jostling for advantage in the power calculus of 2011. Most of them do not care or mind how they secure such advantages provided they succeed. In addition, personal and group ambition gets more consideration than the general good of the people. And so, where do we go from here?
Given the foregoing scenario and realities, I am inclined to assert that there may not be a general election in 2011. If by any magic one is conducted, it will be a voodoo do-or-die election, courtesy of Obasanjo – which result would have been officially written and known months before the sham. The ruling cultists knows the docility, disunity and the legendary cowardice of Nigerians so well that they will be bold enough to foist another ‘doctrine of necessity’ on the country. Based on this, it is more reasonable to expect a campaign for a tenure extension for all public holders, or and actual elongation of tenure, than to expect any election. They will then appeal to Nigerians to take it for the sake of an all-along fake national unity, hinged on the dubious doctrine of necessity. Can we prevent this from happening? Will there be election in 2011? Lets watch, pray and see!