THE TURAKIN ADAMAWA – A PRESIDENTIAL FREAK?
By Ohi Ohida
We may never know since when Alhaji Atiku Abubakar has been preparing himself for the Presidency, but we guess it could have been since he retired as a senior Custom Officer in the late 1980’s. He ran for the office of the Governor of Adamawa State in 1991 against Dr. Bala Takaya. He also ‘won’ the governorship election of the state in 1999 but, traded it in for the Vice Presidential ticket under Chief Olusegun Obasanjo.
Atiku lost out to Alh. Babagana Kingibe, as running mate to late Chief M.K.O. Abiola in 1993, a loss which was believed to have contributed substantially to the annulment of the election. His boss and mentor, late General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua trusted Atiku to a fault, and because his ward was rejected by Abiola for someone else, he threw his weight behind the annulment. The rest, as they say, is now history. The Turakin Adamawa has come a long way in gubernatorial and presidential contests. What he lost in 1993, he gained in 1999 (the V. P. slot) and what he couldn’t get in 2007, he is ready to get it in 2011. Whether he will succeed or not, only seers can dare at the moment.
Of all the Presidential aspirants so far, Atiku is the most exposed to electoral contest. Aside from his 1993, 1999 and 2007 experiences he fought for the nomination of the PDP’s ticket while he was a sitting vice-president. Having been forced out of the Party, he went ahead to form a new Party, the Action Congress AC as it’s Presidential Candidate. That Atiku Abubakar is a fighter, there is no doubt. That he is prepared to fight clean or dirty, there is a generous proof. In fact, he was said to head the rigging machine of the PDP in 2003 and when he left the Party, the violent wing of the Party departed with him to AC. The battle between the PDP and the AC, whether over snatching of ballot boxes or gritty brawls at the polling booths, or the barrage of press battles and the titanic encounters at the Court rooms are the signature tunes of Atiku’s brand of practical politics.
Atiku found out he had no monopoly of either violence or guts. He met his match in a guttier Obasanjo whose gusto for guiles gravitates from the gutsily to the ghastly. The pair – the President and his Vice – made themselves into a spectacular spectacle for a public spectatorial. Both were fighting over a spilled milk (the lost third term for OBJ) and for a pie – in – the sky (the PDP Presidential ticket). But for its toll on governance, it was a picturesque political pictorial to behold. Who didn’t enjoy it while it lasted? Oh, didn’t you?
Who was not entertained by that nasty nihilism that ended in mutual nihility? Lets play back a bit. A military man trained in martial arts of brutality versus a para-military guy schooled in the smuggler’s artistic science? One aimed his bazooka at the skullcap of the other, threatening to blow it to pieces. The other aimed his bayonet at the other’s throat threatening to slice it for a barbecue. Both pulled the trigger and the muzzle at the same time for a blitzkrieg!! Political historians will have to unveil the name of this lawful rough tackles of the fourth Republic.
Atiku’s formation of the Action Congress was thought to be the answer to his discomfort in PDP. But we were all mistaken, for only his body was in AC while his soul was firmly rooted in the PDP. Despite the foregoing bitter encounters with the PDP/ Obasanjo, Atiku returned to his vomit – literally speaking – when he paid a carefully packaged visit to Chief Olusegun Obasanjo in 2008, an event OBJ used to further rubbish the dubious values of Atiku on principles and steadfastness.
A section of the AC took offence and made their displeasure known to Atiku who somehow placated them, albeit temporarily.
Not long after, the Mega Summit Movement (MSM) was formed as an amalgamation of opposition parties dedicated to fighting and wrestling power from the PDP. Atiku was invited into it and was reported to have split it into two: the MSM and the National Democratic Initiative – NDI. He was also said to have reconciled both to become the National Democratic Movement, NDM. Unknown to MSM/NDM, Atiku was oiling his return to the PDP while funding the activities of the former. In order words, he was in the A/C, MSM/NDM while on his way back to the PDP. At the end, everyone was disappointed except Atiku who remain at peace with himself.
Meanwhile, Atiku returned home to PDP to a disquiet reception with his former colleagues singing discordant tunes of (un) welcome, knowing very well he is on his mission for Presidential nomination. He has Ibrahim Babangida, Mohammed Aliyu Gusau and perhaps, President Goodluck Jonathan to wrestle with. A master of intrigues, he may yet prove a hard nut to crack for his co-contestants.
In all these, Atiku left behind political orphans in the AC who, for what they believe in and holds dear, refused to go back with him to the PDP. Others in MSM/NDM who relied on him to beef up opposition against the ruling party for a saner politics were left distraught by Atiku. It is difficult to know who is with him, not so who is against him, a legion are.
The sum total of Atiku’s politics, according to a political science teacher is “a morbid selfish ambition, an implacable resolve to have his way failing which to destroy it, impervious to the plight of his followers, and ever ready to strike a compromise, provided some profits accrue to his person”. While I regard this view somehow harsh, it is imponderable how Atiku will handle the PDP and how the Party will handle Atiku. Knowing that Obasanjo is an implacable foe not known for forgiveness, Atiku may yet run into another tempestuous storm with his former boss. A roforofo fight may likely force Atiku from the PDP and where he will berth is uncertain for now. It is a tall order to say that Atiku will emerge as the candidate of the PDP. How useful is he to another Party after the forth coming primaries of the Party lies in the belly of time.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Saturday, July 24, 2010
AN INTELLIGENCE CZAR AS PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANT
AN INTELLIGENCE CZAR AS PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANT
By Mas Damisa
General Mohammed Aliyu Gusau is not only a recurring decimal in the country’s intelligence community, he has proved to be a shining star that is almost indispensable to most governments since the advent of Abacha’s regime. Between then and now, he has served virtually all subsequent regimes as National Security Adviser, a position more powerful than ever that of the minister of defence. But for the redoubtable General T. Y. Danjuma, whose tenure as Defence Minister may have bridled Gusau, no other minister after him did not bow to the prodigious reputation of Aliyu Gusau in this fourth Republic.
Reputation is often carefully cultivated though for inspite of it, there were many breaches of security and more ethno-religious brouhaha during his tenure as in any other. General Gusau was said to have been spotted by his instructors at the Nigerian Defence Academy in 1965 when he was a Cadet – for his intelligence. Ever since his graduation, he has been made to serve more in the intelligence unit than in other assignments throughout his military career. Officers of his genre are more sought after by both coup-infested polities and governments which underscore security as a big challenge – for obvious reasons.
It is interesting to note that he bidded for nomination of the PDP in 2007 and that even the sly IBB had to step down for him. Amazingly, he never up till now seem to have made implacable enemies in his public service, for none yet has come out to be so identified. A military mind of his make are known to possess a nerve of steel, a smooth demeanour you unsuspectingly trust or lean upon, but also a ruthless security mole whenever they choose to be one. A school of thought believes that Babangida had to step down for Aliyu Gusau in 2007 in deference to or fear of opposing a man who possess many tons of devastating dossier on his regime. That may well be so. Does that explain the phenomenon of Aliyu Gusuau?
Candidate Aliyu Gusau may not fit as an ideal presidential material after all. People of his antecedent are more feared than admired. They are more suspected than are trusted for the simple reason that they are more likely to be secretive than open in their dealings and relationships. In politics, especially the competitive partisan type, your fellow party members and supporters of your aspiration must be sure of who you are, what to expect of you and how to relate with you if you are to be electable.
Mysterious characters such as General Muhammed Aliyu Gusau may not always have or be able to acquire the personae required in debates, arguments and hustling which are the hallmarks of competitive politics. Conducting a campaign in such circumstances will be most difficult except if done by proxy – and yet the voting public would like to feel, see, hear, touch and question their would be president. How General Gusau will handle this aspect of his aspiration is yet to be seen.
How can he run a campaign against his opponents without making a disclosure of their skeletons much of which he knows? Who will disclose his own dubious underbelly if he has one? Campaigns serve to demystify or expose candidates and if Gusau will conduct a real campaign, many a reputation may come crashing on the rock. The Mohammed Aliyu Gusau’s of this world are often more valuable as top security appointees than as elected leaders.
By Mas Damisa
General Mohammed Aliyu Gusau is not only a recurring decimal in the country’s intelligence community, he has proved to be a shining star that is almost indispensable to most governments since the advent of Abacha’s regime. Between then and now, he has served virtually all subsequent regimes as National Security Adviser, a position more powerful than ever that of the minister of defence. But for the redoubtable General T. Y. Danjuma, whose tenure as Defence Minister may have bridled Gusau, no other minister after him did not bow to the prodigious reputation of Aliyu Gusau in this fourth Republic.
Reputation is often carefully cultivated though for inspite of it, there were many breaches of security and more ethno-religious brouhaha during his tenure as in any other. General Gusau was said to have been spotted by his instructors at the Nigerian Defence Academy in 1965 when he was a Cadet – for his intelligence. Ever since his graduation, he has been made to serve more in the intelligence unit than in other assignments throughout his military career. Officers of his genre are more sought after by both coup-infested polities and governments which underscore security as a big challenge – for obvious reasons.
It is interesting to note that he bidded for nomination of the PDP in 2007 and that even the sly IBB had to step down for him. Amazingly, he never up till now seem to have made implacable enemies in his public service, for none yet has come out to be so identified. A military mind of his make are known to possess a nerve of steel, a smooth demeanour you unsuspectingly trust or lean upon, but also a ruthless security mole whenever they choose to be one. A school of thought believes that Babangida had to step down for Aliyu Gusau in 2007 in deference to or fear of opposing a man who possess many tons of devastating dossier on his regime. That may well be so. Does that explain the phenomenon of Aliyu Gusuau?
Candidate Aliyu Gusau may not fit as an ideal presidential material after all. People of his antecedent are more feared than admired. They are more suspected than are trusted for the simple reason that they are more likely to be secretive than open in their dealings and relationships. In politics, especially the competitive partisan type, your fellow party members and supporters of your aspiration must be sure of who you are, what to expect of you and how to relate with you if you are to be electable.
Mysterious characters such as General Muhammed Aliyu Gusau may not always have or be able to acquire the personae required in debates, arguments and hustling which are the hallmarks of competitive politics. Conducting a campaign in such circumstances will be most difficult except if done by proxy – and yet the voting public would like to feel, see, hear, touch and question their would be president. How General Gusau will handle this aspect of his aspiration is yet to be seen.
How can he run a campaign against his opponents without making a disclosure of their skeletons much of which he knows? Who will disclose his own dubious underbelly if he has one? Campaigns serve to demystify or expose candidates and if Gusau will conduct a real campaign, many a reputation may come crashing on the rock. The Mohammed Aliyu Gusau’s of this world are often more valuable as top security appointees than as elected leaders.
CHIEF ANTHONY ENAHORO @87 - A TRIBUTE
CHIEF ANTHONY ENAHORO @87 - A TRIBUTE
By Sam Onimisi
Fifty seven years ago, a thirty year old parliamentarian moved a motion for the independence of Nigeria from colonial rule. That motion being the first of its kind, shook the colonial government not a little, even though the motion was defeated. But seven years later, the freedom was attained. He was only 37 in 1960, was born in July 22, 1927 and is today 87 years old. He was a progressive stormy petrel in the quivers of an indefatigable leader of men and ideas.
Chief Anthony Eremosele Enahoro, CFR was about the youngest editor at 23 who ever edited a tabloid in this country. As a result of his activities in the struggle for independence, both as a newspaper editor, or member of the Zikist Movement or as a member of the Western Regional House of Assembly and, at the Federal House of Representatives, he was a sharp arrow of immense depth of reach. He paid the price of freedom as he was made a jail bird with much inconveniences.
As a debater, he was a master of logic who often overwhelmed his opponents with reasons tactically employed in a logical sequence amidst a dazzling staccato of appropriate words as a matter of strategy. I wish you could see the Hansard of the Parliament in the 1950’s to 1962. He was jailed again along with his leader in the aftermath of the Action Group crisis in 1962, a crisis promoted by retrogressive forces who had preferred the British to continue their governance of Nigeria as a fiefdom.
He bounced back to beef up the military regime of General Yakubu Gowon as Minister of Information in the Civil War years of 1967 to 1970. No wonder, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, the indomitable visioner, seer and political prophet found a worthy lieutenant in Chief Anthony Enahoro. Having served Nigeria in various capacities with all he has, he became a fountain of ideas and ardent advocate of reform in order to stem the tide of failure of Nigeria as a nation-state.
Chief Enahoro founded the Movement for National Reformation in 1992/93 with the sole aim of restructuring the country for more meaningful freedom and better management of resources. He has had to go into exile twice in 1962 and 1995 to avoid being wasted by political Lilliputians of those era. Undaunted by his travails, he went on to put together the Pro-National Conference Organization, PRONACO that held a Peoples National Conference in 2005 for the same purpose of a healthier structural Nigeria.
At 87, he is full of regrets for having not achieved his goals of a progressively productive Nigeria. Of course, he is not in anyway at fault. It is just that this generation of Nigerians failed to key in on his ideas. As an individual, he is a fulfilled man, a father and grandfather and achiever. But for his sagging energy as a result of old age, his desire for this country remain undying. For those waiting for his demise to acknowledge and eulogize him, he is already a phenomenon whose followers are brimming with his progressive ideas that are sure to outlive him.
Happy birthday Sir, the Adolor of Uromi and Mediba of Nigeria.
Sam Onimisi was the Secretary General of PRONACO, the group which produced the Peoples National Conference alternative Constitution for Nigeria in 2005.
By Sam Onimisi
Fifty seven years ago, a thirty year old parliamentarian moved a motion for the independence of Nigeria from colonial rule. That motion being the first of its kind, shook the colonial government not a little, even though the motion was defeated. But seven years later, the freedom was attained. He was only 37 in 1960, was born in July 22, 1927 and is today 87 years old. He was a progressive stormy petrel in the quivers of an indefatigable leader of men and ideas.
Chief Anthony Eremosele Enahoro, CFR was about the youngest editor at 23 who ever edited a tabloid in this country. As a result of his activities in the struggle for independence, both as a newspaper editor, or member of the Zikist Movement or as a member of the Western Regional House of Assembly and, at the Federal House of Representatives, he was a sharp arrow of immense depth of reach. He paid the price of freedom as he was made a jail bird with much inconveniences.
As a debater, he was a master of logic who often overwhelmed his opponents with reasons tactically employed in a logical sequence amidst a dazzling staccato of appropriate words as a matter of strategy. I wish you could see the Hansard of the Parliament in the 1950’s to 1962. He was jailed again along with his leader in the aftermath of the Action Group crisis in 1962, a crisis promoted by retrogressive forces who had preferred the British to continue their governance of Nigeria as a fiefdom.
He bounced back to beef up the military regime of General Yakubu Gowon as Minister of Information in the Civil War years of 1967 to 1970. No wonder, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, the indomitable visioner, seer and political prophet found a worthy lieutenant in Chief Anthony Enahoro. Having served Nigeria in various capacities with all he has, he became a fountain of ideas and ardent advocate of reform in order to stem the tide of failure of Nigeria as a nation-state.
Chief Enahoro founded the Movement for National Reformation in 1992/93 with the sole aim of restructuring the country for more meaningful freedom and better management of resources. He has had to go into exile twice in 1962 and 1995 to avoid being wasted by political Lilliputians of those era. Undaunted by his travails, he went on to put together the Pro-National Conference Organization, PRONACO that held a Peoples National Conference in 2005 for the same purpose of a healthier structural Nigeria.
At 87, he is full of regrets for having not achieved his goals of a progressively productive Nigeria. Of course, he is not in anyway at fault. It is just that this generation of Nigerians failed to key in on his ideas. As an individual, he is a fulfilled man, a father and grandfather and achiever. But for his sagging energy as a result of old age, his desire for this country remain undying. For those waiting for his demise to acknowledge and eulogize him, he is already a phenomenon whose followers are brimming with his progressive ideas that are sure to outlive him.
Happy birthday Sir, the Adolor of Uromi and Mediba of Nigeria.
Sam Onimisi was the Secretary General of PRONACO, the group which produced the Peoples National Conference alternative Constitution for Nigeria in 2005.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
IBB AS A PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANT
IBB AS A PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANT
By Ahmed el-Salam
General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida needs an introduction to those who will attain voting age by 2011. By that year, it would be 18 years after he ‘stepped aside’ – using his own words – as self-made military president of Nigeria; an office he attained via a coup-detat, having overthrown another military government of General Muhammadu Buhari, in which he served as chief of army staff.
From August 1985 to August 1993, he presided over the affairs of this country as an amiable despot. Let me explain. Any person whose emotion is not easily betrayed on the face is inscrutable, but if the person also wears a toothy smile, then he is amiable. IBB is an epitome of despotism, clothed in a consciously crafty camaraderie that is bound to deceive even the most wary individual. He was such an autocratic phantom for the eight years of his clueless rule – which explains why he would rather ‘step-aside’ than resign or retire.
Since 2003, he has regularly threatened to ‘step-in’ again but for one in-descript reason or the other, could not make good his word. The new threat appears more real than the ones before for reasons which may be decipherable. An individual as rich as IBB cannot afford to be disinterested in the game of power politics given the sources and level of his wealth and so, he will always bid for or sponsor someone into power. He needs to protect-more of cover up – a lot of his actions or decisions while at the helm for 8 long years. Many of his boys needs to be nurtured and helped to continue to climb the ladder both in public service and in the business world. He needs more than cash and more of influence and power to do so. He needs to watch his rear, his flanks and his front for the vengeance of those whose toes he rightly or wrongly stepped upon. He aspires to upstage his boss and bosom friend, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo in wealth and record of office – OBJ was in power for close to 12 years combined. These and perhaps more reasons are why IBB’s move this time may be for real.
From most shades of opinion, Babangida is the biggest impediment and liability IBB would have to defeat. This is because his records and legacies are shallow, dubious and altogether unprofitable. Aside from his stocky and handsome looks and toothy smiles, people say there is hardly anything else you can get out of him. His greatest victims were his closest friends and associates. You may wish to ask Buhari who is lucky to be alive. But if you can, please ask General Mamman Vatsa, M.K.O. Abiola and Colonel Dimka all of blessed memory.
Of course, he is a benefactor of not a few who remains at the corridors of power and who still wields some influence. These are the sponsors of his public relations or image laundering and who would go to any length to defend, if they cannot shield him from so many accusing fingers. But they have largely failed. Chief Alfred Rewane, Dele Giwa and many others not so prominent are mementoes of IBB’s ‘magnanimity’. Did Babangida not claim that “for their future, “he” sacrificed his today?” His sacrifices only helped to impoverish Nigeria with high moral bankruptcy, a specie of corruption known as ‘settlement’, and duplicated but, non-performing institutions all of which died along with his exit.
DFRRI, FUMTP, BLFRW – these were satanic acronyms of worthless agencies created mainly to siphon public funds by aides and friends of IBB’s regime. Village, community and urban banks were created for the same purpose. Meanwhile, public utilities of immense benefit to the masses were deliberately killed to give way to the aforementioned junks. The Nigeria Railway, Nigeria Airways, Nigerian Shipping Line all fell victims inspite of IBB’s sacrifice of his today in order to give you better future.
These who ought to know asserted that ‘settlement’ was of three types: an unexpected favour that is meant to make you compromise (reserved for moral crusaders), a concession or contract granted to a public servant or his/her nominee to make him look the other way from a heinous felony; and the ultimate settlement: the beneficiaries were eliminated by seemingly co-incidental ‘accidents’ either by air or by road and other means. ‘Settlement’ knew no friend, colleague or relations. It was purely a Machiavellian tool to waste opponents or potential enemies.
In his preparation for ‘stepping aside’, he was said to have set-up the Heritage Group, one of which monopolized the printing contracts from Abacha’s government. The other one, the Heritage University failed to fly. When mention is made of the $12 billion Gulf war oil windfall, the Okigbo Report and the Oputa Panel, one is being reminded of the type of ‘sacrifice’ that IBB made for or against our future and in his own interest. Sacrifice, service and sincerity lost their true meaning to IBB’s regime.
The Press named him ‘Maradona’ after the manner of the Argentina’s football master dribbler of the 1980’s. Some uncharitable street fellows eulogized him as International Baban Barawo (IBB) based on his reputed itchy fingers at the treasury. You may want to ask them for evidence, if you need to. And the ultimate prize: he christened himself during a press interview as an ‘evil genius’. If we don’t believe the Press, his incessant windy speeches from the throne may be sited as proof. If the IBB eulogy is doubted, you may point to the $12 billion Gulf oil fund as evidence. One may need to be on the fringe of insanity to deny him of the name with which he described himself.
There is a question someone asked in the course of investigation for this article: what is in Ibrahim B. Babangida for Nigeria? This is no doubt a contentious question as there will be as many answers as his supporters and opponents care to proffer. If ours is to mirror the opinions of many and present them to the reader, we shall be failing in our duty if we demur to do so. The value of IBB to Nigerians is to remain who and what he is at the moment: a handsome, stocky former president of Nigeria in retirement. As to what is in him for Nigeria, “a study of the anatomy of anomie may provide a clue, failing which a post – mortem examination on the failure of the Nigerian-state may do the trick”. This was the answer of the person who posed the question. What is your answer?
By Ahmed el-Salam
General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida needs an introduction to those who will attain voting age by 2011. By that year, it would be 18 years after he ‘stepped aside’ – using his own words – as self-made military president of Nigeria; an office he attained via a coup-detat, having overthrown another military government of General Muhammadu Buhari, in which he served as chief of army staff.
From August 1985 to August 1993, he presided over the affairs of this country as an amiable despot. Let me explain. Any person whose emotion is not easily betrayed on the face is inscrutable, but if the person also wears a toothy smile, then he is amiable. IBB is an epitome of despotism, clothed in a consciously crafty camaraderie that is bound to deceive even the most wary individual. He was such an autocratic phantom for the eight years of his clueless rule – which explains why he would rather ‘step-aside’ than resign or retire.
Since 2003, he has regularly threatened to ‘step-in’ again but for one in-descript reason or the other, could not make good his word. The new threat appears more real than the ones before for reasons which may be decipherable. An individual as rich as IBB cannot afford to be disinterested in the game of power politics given the sources and level of his wealth and so, he will always bid for or sponsor someone into power. He needs to protect-more of cover up – a lot of his actions or decisions while at the helm for 8 long years. Many of his boys needs to be nurtured and helped to continue to climb the ladder both in public service and in the business world. He needs more than cash and more of influence and power to do so. He needs to watch his rear, his flanks and his front for the vengeance of those whose toes he rightly or wrongly stepped upon. He aspires to upstage his boss and bosom friend, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo in wealth and record of office – OBJ was in power for close to 12 years combined. These and perhaps more reasons are why IBB’s move this time may be for real.
From most shades of opinion, Babangida is the biggest impediment and liability IBB would have to defeat. This is because his records and legacies are shallow, dubious and altogether unprofitable. Aside from his stocky and handsome looks and toothy smiles, people say there is hardly anything else you can get out of him. His greatest victims were his closest friends and associates. You may wish to ask Buhari who is lucky to be alive. But if you can, please ask General Mamman Vatsa, M.K.O. Abiola and Colonel Dimka all of blessed memory.
Of course, he is a benefactor of not a few who remains at the corridors of power and who still wields some influence. These are the sponsors of his public relations or image laundering and who would go to any length to defend, if they cannot shield him from so many accusing fingers. But they have largely failed. Chief Alfred Rewane, Dele Giwa and many others not so prominent are mementoes of IBB’s ‘magnanimity’. Did Babangida not claim that “for their future, “he” sacrificed his today?” His sacrifices only helped to impoverish Nigeria with high moral bankruptcy, a specie of corruption known as ‘settlement’, and duplicated but, non-performing institutions all of which died along with his exit.
DFRRI, FUMTP, BLFRW – these were satanic acronyms of worthless agencies created mainly to siphon public funds by aides and friends of IBB’s regime. Village, community and urban banks were created for the same purpose. Meanwhile, public utilities of immense benefit to the masses were deliberately killed to give way to the aforementioned junks. The Nigeria Railway, Nigeria Airways, Nigerian Shipping Line all fell victims inspite of IBB’s sacrifice of his today in order to give you better future.
These who ought to know asserted that ‘settlement’ was of three types: an unexpected favour that is meant to make you compromise (reserved for moral crusaders), a concession or contract granted to a public servant or his/her nominee to make him look the other way from a heinous felony; and the ultimate settlement: the beneficiaries were eliminated by seemingly co-incidental ‘accidents’ either by air or by road and other means. ‘Settlement’ knew no friend, colleague or relations. It was purely a Machiavellian tool to waste opponents or potential enemies.
In his preparation for ‘stepping aside’, he was said to have set-up the Heritage Group, one of which monopolized the printing contracts from Abacha’s government. The other one, the Heritage University failed to fly. When mention is made of the $12 billion Gulf war oil windfall, the Okigbo Report and the Oputa Panel, one is being reminded of the type of ‘sacrifice’ that IBB made for or against our future and in his own interest. Sacrifice, service and sincerity lost their true meaning to IBB’s regime.
The Press named him ‘Maradona’ after the manner of the Argentina’s football master dribbler of the 1980’s. Some uncharitable street fellows eulogized him as International Baban Barawo (IBB) based on his reputed itchy fingers at the treasury. You may want to ask them for evidence, if you need to. And the ultimate prize: he christened himself during a press interview as an ‘evil genius’. If we don’t believe the Press, his incessant windy speeches from the throne may be sited as proof. If the IBB eulogy is doubted, you may point to the $12 billion Gulf oil fund as evidence. One may need to be on the fringe of insanity to deny him of the name with which he described himself.
There is a question someone asked in the course of investigation for this article: what is in Ibrahim B. Babangida for Nigeria? This is no doubt a contentious question as there will be as many answers as his supporters and opponents care to proffer. If ours is to mirror the opinions of many and present them to the reader, we shall be failing in our duty if we demur to do so. The value of IBB to Nigerians is to remain who and what he is at the moment: a handsome, stocky former president of Nigeria in retirement. As to what is in him for Nigeria, “a study of the anatomy of anomie may provide a clue, failing which a post – mortem examination on the failure of the Nigerian-state may do the trick”. This was the answer of the person who posed the question. What is your answer?
Saturday, July 17, 2010
FLASHLIGHT ON PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANTS: GMB
FLASHLIGHT ON PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANTS: GMB
By Onesimus Enesi
When the last presidential race was run in 2007, Goodluck Jonathan was a running mate – a position later described as a spare tyre, although he turned out to be a new spare which is as good as the original. His chance in the race for 2011 has been x-rayed in previous articles through this media.
Enter General Muhammadu Buhari fondly known as GMB, never before a spare tyre, old or new. His foray into power came on the heels of the inept and corrupt regime and rotten performance of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) government of Alhaji Shehu Usman Shagari of 1979 – 1983. The overthrow of Shagari’s regime was seen as god-sent by most Nigerians and naturally, the arrowhead of the coup detat was seen an instant hero.
Buhari’s 20 months in power compared to no other regime in the history of Nigeria in terms of trust in government or public authority, focus on the economy and personal and corporate discipline enforced on individuals and institutions. He himself was physically an epitome of frugality, both in appearance and in words. His actions and decisions are the hallmarks of a hurricane. Even at his overthrow by a supposedly trusted friend, he remained frugally defiant and has remained so ever since.
However, Buhari suffered and is still suffering from the public’s perception of his deputy, the late General Tunde Idiagbon whose menacing mien carried the virtues of power and authority. And so, Buhari’s achievements in government were attributed more to Idiagbon than GMB himself. The perception remained till date, except that the performance of Buhari as chairman of PTF between 1994 and 1999 helped to show case the quintessence in the man. But again, the despotism of the regime of General Sani Abacha who appointed him into the PTF diminished the quality of his character and blurred his achievements.
Unknown to the public, Buhari is his own man and only seems a weakling when he operates with individuals or people with whom he enjoys synergy. For instance, General Buhari and Idiagbon were both Fulani even if from different states of the North. They both were also Muslims who shared the same worldview on most issues. Again, long before their tenure in government, they have had to serve as successors or predecessors in the same capacity in the military and public service, thus their perfect understanding of and mutual respect for each other. It was this factor more than any weakness in either of them that was responsible for the leeway Idiagbon enjoyed.
What the synergy meant was that both Buhari and Idiagbon ethnically were brothers, being Fulanis. The two were also Northerners, geo-politically speaking. And both were Muslims of the same sect. So in terms of views, values and preference, Generals Buhari and Idiagbon were a perfect jell. Arguably, no regime, whether military or civilian, enjoyed the synergy which Buhari’s regime enjoys between the two topmost men at the helm of government affairs. Their rapport also stemmed from the fact that they were of the army (as different from either the Navy or Airforce, together with the Army which are called the military). So much for Idiagbon’s influence on Buhari’s government.
Many people are of the opinion that the person of Muhammadu Buhari is not only good but is of the quality the country needs at the moment, i.e, his personal discipline and spartan lifestyle. They site as an example, the manner he dealt with his late ex-wife who was said to be flirting with the Babangida regime while Buhari was in detention. Which means that the man brooks no exception where discipline is the concern? Of course, there are other instances which space cannot accommodate here.
As with everyone, no one has a hundred percent rating acceptance. General Buhari is seen by many people as indecently strict and harsh when dealing with views or people opposed to his or him. They sited instances of his appointments into key positions which were religiously biased, never ethnic compliant and were geo-politically skewed in favour of his region when he was head of State. He was also accused of the same offences during his tenure as chairman of the PTF – when contracts and consultancies were generously awarded to people of his religious faith, ethnic group and regional origin – which prompted a half-hearted attempt to probe him by President Olusegun Obasanjo.
He is also seen as a Muslim extremist by many, especially when in his campaign in the 2003 presidential election, he urged Muslims to vote for a party or candidate who would protect their religious faith. Although, he made spirited attempt to publicly deny it, the allegation refused to go away and it helped Obasanjo to rig him out of that year’s election. As an experienced presidential candidate, Buhari would have learnt one or two lessons on how to handle emotive issues – as they substantially contributed to his failures in 2003 and 2007.
It is almost a foregone conclusion that he will be the flagbearer of the Congress for Progressive Change, CPC – his new party. However, the manner of his emergence as candidate of the ANPP in 2007, when other contestants were reported to have been arm-twisted to step down for him lingers in the memory of many democrats. They are of the view that other aspirants will be shut out of contest in the CPC and so, there may never be internal democracy within the party. This point deserves attention and should not be wished away if we desire openness in electoral process.
Not a few of his erstwhile associates are of the view that Buhari is often held hostage by a clique who feeds on his goodwill and reputation for their own selfish ends. They claimed that Buhari lacks control over the clique who are accused of being responsible for his diminishing returns as a national figure. This group is reputed to have the final say – and not Buhari – on any agreement and alliance to which he consented. This trait is attributed to his military background that thrives on absolute loyalty of lieutenants – even if selfishly so. They contend that a national leader with such a fundamental defect in control or character risk having his government held hostage, by a selfish, sectarian or sectional mafia – a development or possibility that negates an all-inclusive democratic practice. If so, can the man change? The question needs a reassuring answer.
By Onesimus Enesi
When the last presidential race was run in 2007, Goodluck Jonathan was a running mate – a position later described as a spare tyre, although he turned out to be a new spare which is as good as the original. His chance in the race for 2011 has been x-rayed in previous articles through this media.
Enter General Muhammadu Buhari fondly known as GMB, never before a spare tyre, old or new. His foray into power came on the heels of the inept and corrupt regime and rotten performance of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) government of Alhaji Shehu Usman Shagari of 1979 – 1983. The overthrow of Shagari’s regime was seen as god-sent by most Nigerians and naturally, the arrowhead of the coup detat was seen an instant hero.
Buhari’s 20 months in power compared to no other regime in the history of Nigeria in terms of trust in government or public authority, focus on the economy and personal and corporate discipline enforced on individuals and institutions. He himself was physically an epitome of frugality, both in appearance and in words. His actions and decisions are the hallmarks of a hurricane. Even at his overthrow by a supposedly trusted friend, he remained frugally defiant and has remained so ever since.
However, Buhari suffered and is still suffering from the public’s perception of his deputy, the late General Tunde Idiagbon whose menacing mien carried the virtues of power and authority. And so, Buhari’s achievements in government were attributed more to Idiagbon than GMB himself. The perception remained till date, except that the performance of Buhari as chairman of PTF between 1994 and 1999 helped to show case the quintessence in the man. But again, the despotism of the regime of General Sani Abacha who appointed him into the PTF diminished the quality of his character and blurred his achievements.
Unknown to the public, Buhari is his own man and only seems a weakling when he operates with individuals or people with whom he enjoys synergy. For instance, General Buhari and Idiagbon were both Fulani even if from different states of the North. They both were also Muslims who shared the same worldview on most issues. Again, long before their tenure in government, they have had to serve as successors or predecessors in the same capacity in the military and public service, thus their perfect understanding of and mutual respect for each other. It was this factor more than any weakness in either of them that was responsible for the leeway Idiagbon enjoyed.
What the synergy meant was that both Buhari and Idiagbon ethnically were brothers, being Fulanis. The two were also Northerners, geo-politically speaking. And both were Muslims of the same sect. So in terms of views, values and preference, Generals Buhari and Idiagbon were a perfect jell. Arguably, no regime, whether military or civilian, enjoyed the synergy which Buhari’s regime enjoys between the two topmost men at the helm of government affairs. Their rapport also stemmed from the fact that they were of the army (as different from either the Navy or Airforce, together with the Army which are called the military). So much for Idiagbon’s influence on Buhari’s government.
Many people are of the opinion that the person of Muhammadu Buhari is not only good but is of the quality the country needs at the moment, i.e, his personal discipline and spartan lifestyle. They site as an example, the manner he dealt with his late ex-wife who was said to be flirting with the Babangida regime while Buhari was in detention. Which means that the man brooks no exception where discipline is the concern? Of course, there are other instances which space cannot accommodate here.
As with everyone, no one has a hundred percent rating acceptance. General Buhari is seen by many people as indecently strict and harsh when dealing with views or people opposed to his or him. They sited instances of his appointments into key positions which were religiously biased, never ethnic compliant and were geo-politically skewed in favour of his region when he was head of State. He was also accused of the same offences during his tenure as chairman of the PTF – when contracts and consultancies were generously awarded to people of his religious faith, ethnic group and regional origin – which prompted a half-hearted attempt to probe him by President Olusegun Obasanjo.
He is also seen as a Muslim extremist by many, especially when in his campaign in the 2003 presidential election, he urged Muslims to vote for a party or candidate who would protect their religious faith. Although, he made spirited attempt to publicly deny it, the allegation refused to go away and it helped Obasanjo to rig him out of that year’s election. As an experienced presidential candidate, Buhari would have learnt one or two lessons on how to handle emotive issues – as they substantially contributed to his failures in 2003 and 2007.
It is almost a foregone conclusion that he will be the flagbearer of the Congress for Progressive Change, CPC – his new party. However, the manner of his emergence as candidate of the ANPP in 2007, when other contestants were reported to have been arm-twisted to step down for him lingers in the memory of many democrats. They are of the view that other aspirants will be shut out of contest in the CPC and so, there may never be internal democracy within the party. This point deserves attention and should not be wished away if we desire openness in electoral process.
Not a few of his erstwhile associates are of the view that Buhari is often held hostage by a clique who feeds on his goodwill and reputation for their own selfish ends. They claimed that Buhari lacks control over the clique who are accused of being responsible for his diminishing returns as a national figure. This group is reputed to have the final say – and not Buhari – on any agreement and alliance to which he consented. This trait is attributed to his military background that thrives on absolute loyalty of lieutenants – even if selfishly so. They contend that a national leader with such a fundamental defect in control or character risk having his government held hostage, by a selfish, sectarian or sectional mafia – a development or possibility that negates an all-inclusive democratic practice. If so, can the man change? The question needs a reassuring answer.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
GOOLUCK JONATHAN AS A CANDIDATE – 1
GOOLUCK JONATHAN AS A CANDIDATE – 1
By Onesimus Enesi
Until Professor Jega and his electoral commission say otherwise, it is assumed that there will be a general election by next year. There is muted news in the air that President Jonathan is likely to be a candidate in the election – that is, if his party nominates him as its candidate. The Peoples Democratic Party will soon conduct its primaries which will supposedly give all aspirants equal opportunity to vie. All these are so far, mere assumptions.
For one, President Jonathan has not declared his intention to run. For another, his party is already squabbling over a so-called gentleman’s agreement on zoning. For selfish political expediency, power rotation is now touted as zoning, whereas zoning is simply a distribution of high political offices in constituencies so as to ensure an acceptable spread – so that no area or people suffers undue disadvantage.
Rotation of power was called power-shift following the annulment of a validly won election in 1993. Chief M.K.O. Abiola from the South West won the election but annulled by General Ibrahim Babangida from the North West. Power shift therefore, is confined to the office of the President only and in the states, the office of the Governor. But in the on-going debate as to the merits and demerits of power rotation, everyone seems to forget that zoning and rotation is not exactly the same thing.
Why, if we may ask, must a Party’s arrangement become a national policy? Is it because the PDP is the current ruling Party? If so, is the current debate based on the assumption that what is good for the PDP is good for all political parties or the whole country? The way the Northern Governors and political leaders are going about the debate, it would appear as if the PDP’s internal agreement is superior to the provisions of the Constitution which gives every Nigerian the right to contest for any public office of their choice.
The PDP and its Northern leaders ought to remember that they supposed to be for all Nigerians and not a section. The proponents of power rotation could not see far as to know that the power-shift crusade of 1993 to 1999 is not the same as power rotation of 1999 to 2010. Power shift was achieved when power shifted to the South West in 1999. Power rotation commenced in 2007 and was disrupted by Umaru Yar’Adua’s death in May 2010. If power rotation turned out to be shortsighted, there is no one to be blamed but its authors, death and the Constitution. Its authors because they did not envisage that if the President is impeached or dies in office, the vice president automatically steps in.
Death is to be blamed for it gives no notice that it will come to take away the President before his term of office expires. The 1999 constitution takes its own blame for stipulating that the offices of the President and Vice President must come from different geo-political zones. As it is, the North must come to terms with fate and so, her attempt to elevate a Party’s internal policy over and above the country’s constitution will not auger well for the country. If the constitution is superior to other laws or conventions, it follows that PDP’s power rotation agreement is inferior, more so when that agreement is its internal affairs.
However, there is the genuine argument that every member of the PDP who are privy to that rotational arrangement is bound by honour to abide by it. And President Jonathan is a member of the party. The issue here, to my mind, is not a moral one, since power is not the patrimony of any section of the country. The issue is if Jonathan will differ to his party and forgo his constitutional rights. In facts, much more than that is the fundamental rights of choice. Put on a scale, I would say that President Jonathan’s fundamental human and constitutional rights weigh more than mere party expedient policies or agreement.
As it is, the two sides to the agreement cannot change the constitution nor can they impose it on the whole country. It is therefore left to the PDP either to bend its policy to accommodate all contestants, or expel those who insist on contesting as against the party’s internal agreement. The easiest way out for the PDP is to kick out Jonathan and nominate a Northerner as its presidential candidate in order to preserve its rotational agreement. Whether they have the nerve to sanction a sitting president by stopping him from the contest remain to be seen.
From the history of the PDP, internal democracy is inferior to consensual ‘agreement’. No one is on record to have won any primaries except those ordained by godfathers. Even when the party or their government initiates reform, they are always dead on arrival. Remember the local government reforms, the economic reforms and the latest electoral reform? It means there must be some other means or method by which the party wins elections since it is so pervasively averse to democratic practice; but this is a subject for another day.
On the other hand, the ability of Candidate Jonathan to insist on running – if and when he so decides – is yet to be seen. He has his immediate constituency to think about. He helped to bring about the appeasement and amnesty in the Niger Delta. He is saddled with the responsibility of making the amnesty work. He has such a short time to do so, given his other enormous responsibility to the country. Those against his candidature may adduce the foregoing and more popular reasons, but it does not mean that they are right or wrong. After all, there is no way he can achieve adequate national security, sustainable power supply, ensure free and fair polls, implement the amnesty programme – all in a space of one year!
But we must also ask whether Jonathan has the nerve to run and risk expulsion by his party. Can he afford to dump the PDP and seek election via another party? Has the PDP what it taxes to fight from the outside? We shall find out soon.
THE CANDIDATURE OF GOODLUCK JONATHAN - 2
By what other means did the Peoples Democratic Party won all these election or re-run election between 2007 & 2009? And by what means do they hope to win the next general elections? If the PDP cling to its zoning policy, it means President Jonathan will be out of contention in the party and a northerner is likely to emerge as its candidate. And here is a snag – a big one.
The PDP doesn’t have what it takes to complete in a free and fair contest. Apart from their dismal failure in all area of development and democratic practice, it knows only one way of winning; via Gerrymandering or power manipulation! Call it executive rigging – a sophisticated method of winning and knowing the exact result of an election ever before it takes place. It is that their patrons must be in power to conduct the election (as in 1999) or one of their own must be in charge (as in 2003 and 2007).
Power manipulation is a game in which all rules must be bent, all convention broken and time honoured practices dishonoured for the purpose of wining. To be absolutely sure of `success’, it must be the PDP’s man who must be the president and the chairman of INEC. Which is why they did not wait for their own initiated reform to appoint the new INEC executives? Having done so, they have boxed themselves into a corner: they must nominate Goodluck Jonathan whose hands are now at the levers of power or risk loosing the next election. Knowing the leaders of the PDP as we all do, they would endure to have Jonathan as their candidate and a President till 2015 when the North may then take another turn at the Presidency. Note that there is a continuous assumption that the PDP must win, never lose regardless of their abject poverty of ideas on development.
If by any squeak of chance, the Party stick to its zoning agreement, then President Jonathan is free to seek to actualize his ambition on the Platform of any other Party. He would breach no law and instead, will treat the path taken by others before him. After all, Atiku Abubakar, a veteran Presidential race-runner clutched to the mandate of the PDP and yet run the race with the ticket of AC in 2007. In the poverty development party, it is the norm to dine with the wolves and run with the hare at the same time.
On this score, Candidate Jonathan suffers no stigma, after all. He was not elected on any Party’s ticket as President but made so by the doctrine of necessity of the National Assembly. Electoral gerrymandering and power manipulation has served the ruling party so well that it appears they can only be defeated by the same instruments. When a party wins electoral contest by gang-raping democracy in public glare (the gang, comprising of the electoral umpire, the security and defense agencies and the Party in power) what hope is there that Nigeria will ever experience or enjoy democracy-with the PDP in the saddle?
So far, President Jonathan suffers no defect as a Presidential material except those inflicted on him by his membership of the PDP. If he chose to run as an independent candidate or on the platform of another Party, his chances of running a clean campaign and supervising a free election will be brighter. This is based on the general perception of the electorate that the ruling Party is incapable of conducting a fraud free election.
As if other aspirants are scared, none has come out of the East and the West yet. The field is left wide open to aspirants such as General Ibrahim Babangida, Muhammadu Buhari, Aliyu Gusau and Alh. Atiku Abubakar – all from the North. Except for Buhari who now has a brand new Party on which platform he will run his race, the three others are jostling for the PDP’s ticket – presumably against Goodluck Jonathan – a development that will brighten the chances of Buhari and Jonathan – should he run via another Party. Has he the courage to dump the PDP?
Analysts are of the view that of the five presidential aspirants, three are non-starters for various reasons. One is said to be a political leper across the country that, everyone seem ready to despoil. The second is believed to be a confirmed party prostitute who has offended the sensibilities of various parties by flirting. The third is reported to be incapable of running a presidential race, given his narrow electoral exposure and limited political savvy.
In effect, only two candidates may be said to be available so far for the race. All these factors are not against Goodluck Jonathan as infact, they are rather in his favour. If a claim to the leadership of the country is the issue, the South-South has more right to it than any other zone. Infact, the North ought not to be in contention as they have ruled Nigeria more than any other region. In terms of the resources which sustain the country, the South-South contributes more than 80% to the coffers of Nigeria.
Again, Nigeria is not only for the big three: the Hausa-Fulani, Yoruba and Igbo but for all ethnic nations in the country. President Goodluck Jonathan is a Nigerian of Ijaw ethnic nationality and one of the minority ethnic groups of the South. If he joins the race for the Presidency, he is likely to win the sympathy and support of most minority ethnic groups in the country. They would feel for one of their own – because combined, they are numerically in majority but for their lack of organization.
If numerically and economically, the candidature of Goodluck Jonathan is justified, he only needs courage and mobilizations to break the jinx and contest next year’s presidential election – and possibly win. Is Goodluck Jonathan bold? Time will tell.
By Onesimus Enesi
Until Professor Jega and his electoral commission say otherwise, it is assumed that there will be a general election by next year. There is muted news in the air that President Jonathan is likely to be a candidate in the election – that is, if his party nominates him as its candidate. The Peoples Democratic Party will soon conduct its primaries which will supposedly give all aspirants equal opportunity to vie. All these are so far, mere assumptions.
For one, President Jonathan has not declared his intention to run. For another, his party is already squabbling over a so-called gentleman’s agreement on zoning. For selfish political expediency, power rotation is now touted as zoning, whereas zoning is simply a distribution of high political offices in constituencies so as to ensure an acceptable spread – so that no area or people suffers undue disadvantage.
Rotation of power was called power-shift following the annulment of a validly won election in 1993. Chief M.K.O. Abiola from the South West won the election but annulled by General Ibrahim Babangida from the North West. Power shift therefore, is confined to the office of the President only and in the states, the office of the Governor. But in the on-going debate as to the merits and demerits of power rotation, everyone seems to forget that zoning and rotation is not exactly the same thing.
Why, if we may ask, must a Party’s arrangement become a national policy? Is it because the PDP is the current ruling Party? If so, is the current debate based on the assumption that what is good for the PDP is good for all political parties or the whole country? The way the Northern Governors and political leaders are going about the debate, it would appear as if the PDP’s internal agreement is superior to the provisions of the Constitution which gives every Nigerian the right to contest for any public office of their choice.
The PDP and its Northern leaders ought to remember that they supposed to be for all Nigerians and not a section. The proponents of power rotation could not see far as to know that the power-shift crusade of 1993 to 1999 is not the same as power rotation of 1999 to 2010. Power shift was achieved when power shifted to the South West in 1999. Power rotation commenced in 2007 and was disrupted by Umaru Yar’Adua’s death in May 2010. If power rotation turned out to be shortsighted, there is no one to be blamed but its authors, death and the Constitution. Its authors because they did not envisage that if the President is impeached or dies in office, the vice president automatically steps in.
Death is to be blamed for it gives no notice that it will come to take away the President before his term of office expires. The 1999 constitution takes its own blame for stipulating that the offices of the President and Vice President must come from different geo-political zones. As it is, the North must come to terms with fate and so, her attempt to elevate a Party’s internal policy over and above the country’s constitution will not auger well for the country. If the constitution is superior to other laws or conventions, it follows that PDP’s power rotation agreement is inferior, more so when that agreement is its internal affairs.
However, there is the genuine argument that every member of the PDP who are privy to that rotational arrangement is bound by honour to abide by it. And President Jonathan is a member of the party. The issue here, to my mind, is not a moral one, since power is not the patrimony of any section of the country. The issue is if Jonathan will differ to his party and forgo his constitutional rights. In facts, much more than that is the fundamental rights of choice. Put on a scale, I would say that President Jonathan’s fundamental human and constitutional rights weigh more than mere party expedient policies or agreement.
As it is, the two sides to the agreement cannot change the constitution nor can they impose it on the whole country. It is therefore left to the PDP either to bend its policy to accommodate all contestants, or expel those who insist on contesting as against the party’s internal agreement. The easiest way out for the PDP is to kick out Jonathan and nominate a Northerner as its presidential candidate in order to preserve its rotational agreement. Whether they have the nerve to sanction a sitting president by stopping him from the contest remain to be seen.
From the history of the PDP, internal democracy is inferior to consensual ‘agreement’. No one is on record to have won any primaries except those ordained by godfathers. Even when the party or their government initiates reform, they are always dead on arrival. Remember the local government reforms, the economic reforms and the latest electoral reform? It means there must be some other means or method by which the party wins elections since it is so pervasively averse to democratic practice; but this is a subject for another day.
On the other hand, the ability of Candidate Jonathan to insist on running – if and when he so decides – is yet to be seen. He has his immediate constituency to think about. He helped to bring about the appeasement and amnesty in the Niger Delta. He is saddled with the responsibility of making the amnesty work. He has such a short time to do so, given his other enormous responsibility to the country. Those against his candidature may adduce the foregoing and more popular reasons, but it does not mean that they are right or wrong. After all, there is no way he can achieve adequate national security, sustainable power supply, ensure free and fair polls, implement the amnesty programme – all in a space of one year!
But we must also ask whether Jonathan has the nerve to run and risk expulsion by his party. Can he afford to dump the PDP and seek election via another party? Has the PDP what it taxes to fight from the outside? We shall find out soon.
THE CANDIDATURE OF GOODLUCK JONATHAN - 2
By what other means did the Peoples Democratic Party won all these election or re-run election between 2007 & 2009? And by what means do they hope to win the next general elections? If the PDP cling to its zoning policy, it means President Jonathan will be out of contention in the party and a northerner is likely to emerge as its candidate. And here is a snag – a big one.
The PDP doesn’t have what it takes to complete in a free and fair contest. Apart from their dismal failure in all area of development and democratic practice, it knows only one way of winning; via Gerrymandering or power manipulation! Call it executive rigging – a sophisticated method of winning and knowing the exact result of an election ever before it takes place. It is that their patrons must be in power to conduct the election (as in 1999) or one of their own must be in charge (as in 2003 and 2007).
Power manipulation is a game in which all rules must be bent, all convention broken and time honoured practices dishonoured for the purpose of wining. To be absolutely sure of `success’, it must be the PDP’s man who must be the president and the chairman of INEC. Which is why they did not wait for their own initiated reform to appoint the new INEC executives? Having done so, they have boxed themselves into a corner: they must nominate Goodluck Jonathan whose hands are now at the levers of power or risk loosing the next election. Knowing the leaders of the PDP as we all do, they would endure to have Jonathan as their candidate and a President till 2015 when the North may then take another turn at the Presidency. Note that there is a continuous assumption that the PDP must win, never lose regardless of their abject poverty of ideas on development.
If by any squeak of chance, the Party stick to its zoning agreement, then President Jonathan is free to seek to actualize his ambition on the Platform of any other Party. He would breach no law and instead, will treat the path taken by others before him. After all, Atiku Abubakar, a veteran Presidential race-runner clutched to the mandate of the PDP and yet run the race with the ticket of AC in 2007. In the poverty development party, it is the norm to dine with the wolves and run with the hare at the same time.
On this score, Candidate Jonathan suffers no stigma, after all. He was not elected on any Party’s ticket as President but made so by the doctrine of necessity of the National Assembly. Electoral gerrymandering and power manipulation has served the ruling party so well that it appears they can only be defeated by the same instruments. When a party wins electoral contest by gang-raping democracy in public glare (the gang, comprising of the electoral umpire, the security and defense agencies and the Party in power) what hope is there that Nigeria will ever experience or enjoy democracy-with the PDP in the saddle?
So far, President Jonathan suffers no defect as a Presidential material except those inflicted on him by his membership of the PDP. If he chose to run as an independent candidate or on the platform of another Party, his chances of running a clean campaign and supervising a free election will be brighter. This is based on the general perception of the electorate that the ruling Party is incapable of conducting a fraud free election.
As if other aspirants are scared, none has come out of the East and the West yet. The field is left wide open to aspirants such as General Ibrahim Babangida, Muhammadu Buhari, Aliyu Gusau and Alh. Atiku Abubakar – all from the North. Except for Buhari who now has a brand new Party on which platform he will run his race, the three others are jostling for the PDP’s ticket – presumably against Goodluck Jonathan – a development that will brighten the chances of Buhari and Jonathan – should he run via another Party. Has he the courage to dump the PDP?
Analysts are of the view that of the five presidential aspirants, three are non-starters for various reasons. One is said to be a political leper across the country that, everyone seem ready to despoil. The second is believed to be a confirmed party prostitute who has offended the sensibilities of various parties by flirting. The third is reported to be incapable of running a presidential race, given his narrow electoral exposure and limited political savvy.
In effect, only two candidates may be said to be available so far for the race. All these factors are not against Goodluck Jonathan as infact, they are rather in his favour. If a claim to the leadership of the country is the issue, the South-South has more right to it than any other zone. Infact, the North ought not to be in contention as they have ruled Nigeria more than any other region. In terms of the resources which sustain the country, the South-South contributes more than 80% to the coffers of Nigeria.
Again, Nigeria is not only for the big three: the Hausa-Fulani, Yoruba and Igbo but for all ethnic nations in the country. President Goodluck Jonathan is a Nigerian of Ijaw ethnic nationality and one of the minority ethnic groups of the South. If he joins the race for the Presidency, he is likely to win the sympathy and support of most minority ethnic groups in the country. They would feel for one of their own – because combined, they are numerically in majority but for their lack of organization.
If numerically and economically, the candidature of Goodluck Jonathan is justified, he only needs courage and mobilizations to break the jinx and contest next year’s presidential election – and possibly win. Is Goodluck Jonathan bold? Time will tell.
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
CONSPIRATORIAL CENSUS
CONSPIRATORIAL CENSUS
By Sam Onimisi
Census is a count of the population and a property evaluation of a given nation or country. Enumeration is conducted to count or ascertain the number of people or something and to specify them one after another. In conducting a census, vital statistics are essentially as statistics relating to birth, deaths, marriages, health and disease are needed to form a reliable data or foundation basis of enumeration.
In order to be accurate, demographic principles must be applied and, the density, size, distribution and vital statistic of human population constitute demography. The UN stipulates that census need be conducted once every ten yeas in order to ascertain and update the numbers and factors of increase or decrease in a given population.
It is a well known and universally accepted fact that wars, civil strife, famine, epidemic, diseases etc are factors that diminishes population. To enhance population growth, the richness of the soil, the productivity of the inhabitants of a given territory and the technology available to and employed by them are indispensible primary factors. Other factors are social, i.e. the system of marriage in terms of monogamy and polygamy which could multiply child birth. This could be considered to be a secondary factor, in that in Nigeria, anyone is free to marry one or more wives and give birth to as many children as his libido and ability could produce.
Religion is not so much a factor in population decrease or increase since the man who marries more wives may not be as virile or fertile as the man who married only one wife. Fertility therefore is an important factor in reproduction - a phenomenon which defies religious affiliation.
Most unfortunately, the tools or basis of reliable census has never been given priority by public authorities at all tiers of government since independence in 1960. Hardly does any local government council in Nigeria insists, keep or enforce the law or practice of registration of births and deaths, marriages, diseases etc. Neither the local government council nor the state government knows the number of inhabited houses in their territory. Whereas, this statistics are necessary, not only for planning purpose but also for the purpose of taxation. So, if the booming and growing population does not correlate with dwindling tax or internally generated revenue, the reason is not far-fetched. Moreover, census is made the sole responsibility of the federal government which in reality has no territory or population of its own. The import of this is that the tier of government which has no stake in population is the one saddled with the responsibility of counting them. Perhaps, it could be said that such neutrality enhances or makes for impartiality. But officials of the federal government are not saints from another planet. They are natives of one region, state or ethnic group or the other and therefore, have a partisan interest in the figure of his/her native state/region.
The number of people or houses in any state or region would not have mattered to others if each state or region is self-sustaining economically. But if resources from the people of one region has to be used for other people of another region, especially if done in a disproportionate manner, then the basis or rationale for that decision or practice must be examined in line with time-honoured principle of natural rights. The immediate question is; what is the beneficiary region giving in exchange or in lieu of what it receives? Why do they take or are they given more than the owners of the resources? These questions are digressions but necessary as they relate to population. Why? If population must be used as a basis for revenue sharing or allocation, such figures must be properly authenticated in order to avoid fraudulent claims and unearned revenue or unfair allocation. But can it be claimed that Nigeria has conducted a clean and thorough census since 1960? Has any such exercise utilized the principles and practice of demography and enumeration? Because when vital statistics are taken away from any census, what results is mere figure allocation! Since 1960 or even before then, no government, whether colonial or military has ever conducted a census devoid of partisan political and discriminatory considerations. The result? No government, group or individual can sincerely claim to know the true population of Nigeria. Whatever figures are displayed is at best estimation, guesstimates or simple figure allocation on the basis of projection and assumption. The effect is that the populace has no incentive to be productive because they receive revenue allocation on the basis of their numerical strength their needs or on equality, and not on their productivity or efforts. The contention here is that numerical strength has not been properly determined and so, needs could either be exaggerated or underestimated. And of course, equality has the implication of paying one in excess by short changing the other. Thus, whichever criteria are used other than derivation and productivity, have the tendency of bringing revenue sharing into contentious ruin. Yet, no country could make progress if it does not know how many her citizens and residents are! Knowing the correct population helps planning, budgeting, taxation and allocation or sharing of available resources for the good of the greater number of the people.
But why has enumeration become so controversial that Nigeria has always turned in conspiratorial figures in census exercises? For a honest answer, recourse must be made into the history of past censuses to arrive at genuine answers. Unfortunately however, past census exercises are as controversial and contentious as recent ones. So how do we arrive at the causative factors of census failures in Nigeria?
NIGERIAN CENSUS RETURNS: 1952 – 2006
YEAR NORTH WEST EAST LAGOS ABUJA TOTAL REMARK
1952 17 6 7 0.3 - 30
1962 22 11 12 0.5 - 45 Nullified
1963 30 13 12 0.7 - 56 Disputed
1973 ? ? ? ? - ? Disputed
1991 47 12 24 6 0.4 89 Disputed
2006 72 23 35 9 1.4 140 Disputed
Apart from the 1952 census conducted by the colonial government, the rest were conducted by Nigerians
THOSE WHO PRESIDED OVER CENSUS
YEAR EVENT HEAD OF STATE/GOVERNMENT
1962 & 1963 - Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa
1973 - General Yakubu Gowon
1983 (no census) Alh. Shehu Aliyu Usman Shagari
1991 - General Ibrahim B. Babangida
2001 (no census) Chief Olusegun Obasanjo
2006 - Chief Olusegun Obasanjo
Of the five Nigerian leaders who conducted census during their tenure, four were Northerners while only one was a Southerner. Given the general perception of religion as a “correlation with ethnicity and geographic region”, there was little doubt the various census exercises were tainted with either religious, ethnic and geo-political sentiment or bias-all of which made them disputed and unreliable. What emerged from the foregoing is that ethnic nationality, religious faith and geo-political sentiment constitutes factors of failure or of fraud in all enumeration exercises conducted. In fact, not a few Nigerians faulted the 1952 census by colonial government as they were accused of allocating fake figures to the North with a view of handing over government to them at independence which was eight years away. Therefore, right from before independence, all census as may be deemed to be full of assumption, bias and so, unreliable. What other factors accounted for the unmitigated failure of census in Nigeria?
Emigration
Since the amalgamation of 1914, Nigerians by choice or by force began internal emigration either in colonial service or for trade. Itinerary traders and Cattle shepherds, technocrats and professionals are involved; some of who took up residence in places other than their own lands. Just as the Igbo ethnic nation trades and moves and resides in the West and the North, so Hausa traders and the cattle Fulani moves and resides either in the East or in the West. The Yoruba traders and professionals or academics moves and resides all over Nigeria. This same holds for the over three hundred ethnic nationalities that move away from their abode to other areas to reside and do their business. The fact of the matter is that internal movement is a general phenomenon which gives no special advantage to any region, state or ethnic group. Moreover, in the last two census exercise of 1991 and 2006, two vital components of enumeration were excluded: ethnic group and religion. If ethnicity and religion are unimportant, Nigerians would not have cleaved to their ethnic language, culture and religion to the effect that they fight over them. Is the exclusion of the two components not a subterfuge for manipulation of figures in favour or against any group, be it religious, ethnic or geographical? It is in the light of this fact that last year’s news item by the Empowered Newswire and credited to the Washington based Pew Centres Forum on Religion and Public Life to the effect that 5% of the world’s Muslim population lives in Nigeria caused altercation between Christians and Muslims. How did the research group arrive at their figures and what is their source of information? This type of baseless claims by whosoever is not only mischief making, it further confounded the issue of proper census in the country and drove a wedge between Christians and Muslims. Again, emigration involves people who are either Christians or Muslims and who settles wherever they do, practicing their religion and thereby giving no advantage to any particular religion, except that such emigrants are no longer registered by the local authorities.
Immigration
Many people have immigrated into Nigeria from neighbouring countries for permanent residence. They do so without fulfilling necessary conditions such as resident permit or even international passport and visa where applicable. It is an open secret that Nigeria’s international borders are very porous and manned by corrupt Immigration officials who compromised the laws through gratification from immigrants. For example, the Niger Republic share borders with Sokoto, Kano, Jigawa, Katsina and Yobe States. The Chad Republic shares border with Borno State, while Adamawa and Taraba States, Cross River and Akwa Ibom States share borders with the Republic of Cameroon. Also, Kebbi, Niger, Kwara, Oyo and Ogun States shares common borders with the tiny Republic of Benin. These borders constitute both economic and political problems to Nigeria. How? Nigeria’s western borders pose more economic than political problems; Benin’s importance is not their population (which is about 9 million) but their Sea Port through which smuggling of goods enter into Nigeria. Moreover, the Yoruba is one of the many ethnic groups in Benin Republic, though a small minority. The thriving maritime business does not encourage but rather discourage immigration into Nigeria, thus the assertion that they could constitute only economic headache to Nigeria. The country’s eastern borders are a major inlet for immigrants from Cameroon Republic. Having ceded Bakkasi to Cameroon, immigration from there via Cross River and Akwa Ibom States to Nigeria was never and now not a headache, also bolstered by maritime business via the ocean. The problem area is with the borders with Adamawa and Taraba States and Cameroon through which immigrants enjoy unfettered entry into Nigeria. With Cameroon’s population of over 18 million, the Fulani are as many in Nigeria as they are in Cameroon and recognize no borders between the two countries, crossing either way at will when it suited them. Of course, it is claimed that many of them are encouraged to settle down in Adamawa State in particular and other parts of the North in general. These immigrants are often counted as Nigerians as there is no distinction between the Cameroonian Fulani and their Nigerian Counterpart.
More worrisome is the in-pouring of the Hausa ethnic group of Niger Republic into Nigeria with no let or hindrance. That country is a semi-desert, whose borders with northern-most States of Nigeria are the most unmarked and porous international boundary. Having no resources or industry to sustain them at home, they flock into Nigeria where they are accepted as even more Nigerian than bona fide Nigerians. Through such States as Kano, Sokoto, Katsina and Jigawa, foreign Hausas, immigrated massively into Nigeria yearly to swell the number of the Hausa ethnic group. It is believed that foreign religious mercenaries who often fight in ethno-religious riots in Northern and Central Nigeria are recruited from among them. They are also said to be counted as Nigerians during census years when they are reported to be especially encouraged to come into the country without any constraints.
This on-going illegal immigration in no mall way helped to distort the true population of Nigeria and was the main reason why the National Identity Card project was frustrated. So, when any ethnic group claim that they have outgrown ethnicity and that they are universal residential citizens, is it to enable them roam and claim any land or territory in Nigeria with the aid of their foreign brothers? Meaning that they like to keep and enjoy dual citizenship of both countries while they feel no remorse in despoiling other ethnic groups whose culture and religion differs from their own, since they have another home country to which they often flee when they are forced to. With the combined population of about 45 million people, the Republics of Niger, Cameroon and Chad are the main source of illegal immigrants into Nigeria to the effect that it is estimated that one out of every three Hausa/Fulani in Nigeria are foreigners. If this is not true, the ever porous borders of Nigeria with these countries are a living proof of what is true. All these goes to prove why census exercises in Nigeria have failed woefully and why none may succeed even in the future.
In summary, ethnicity, religion and geo-political regional considerations or factors are responsible for the failure of enumeration in Nigeria. What is the answer? Until Nigeria stops her pretense at federalism and undergo geo-political restructuring along ethnic and territorial basis, true national unity can never be achieved. And as long as Nigeria remains a unitary nation-state, no census will ever succeed. It will always end a wasteful exercise. Conspiratorial Census has never helped any country to unite; on the contrary, it hastens the disintegration of countries that are multi-national, multi-lingual, multi-cultural and multi-ethnic, and Nigeria is one such country.
Rather than be seen as portraying any ethnic group in the negative, this article is a clarion call to all genuine Nigerians to reflect upon the facts deposed herein so that together, we can salvage the country from the path of a failed nation State!
By Sam Onimisi
Census is a count of the population and a property evaluation of a given nation or country. Enumeration is conducted to count or ascertain the number of people or something and to specify them one after another. In conducting a census, vital statistics are essentially as statistics relating to birth, deaths, marriages, health and disease are needed to form a reliable data or foundation basis of enumeration.
In order to be accurate, demographic principles must be applied and, the density, size, distribution and vital statistic of human population constitute demography. The UN stipulates that census need be conducted once every ten yeas in order to ascertain and update the numbers and factors of increase or decrease in a given population.
It is a well known and universally accepted fact that wars, civil strife, famine, epidemic, diseases etc are factors that diminishes population. To enhance population growth, the richness of the soil, the productivity of the inhabitants of a given territory and the technology available to and employed by them are indispensible primary factors. Other factors are social, i.e. the system of marriage in terms of monogamy and polygamy which could multiply child birth. This could be considered to be a secondary factor, in that in Nigeria, anyone is free to marry one or more wives and give birth to as many children as his libido and ability could produce.
Religion is not so much a factor in population decrease or increase since the man who marries more wives may not be as virile or fertile as the man who married only one wife. Fertility therefore is an important factor in reproduction - a phenomenon which defies religious affiliation.
Most unfortunately, the tools or basis of reliable census has never been given priority by public authorities at all tiers of government since independence in 1960. Hardly does any local government council in Nigeria insists, keep or enforce the law or practice of registration of births and deaths, marriages, diseases etc. Neither the local government council nor the state government knows the number of inhabited houses in their territory. Whereas, this statistics are necessary, not only for planning purpose but also for the purpose of taxation. So, if the booming and growing population does not correlate with dwindling tax or internally generated revenue, the reason is not far-fetched. Moreover, census is made the sole responsibility of the federal government which in reality has no territory or population of its own. The import of this is that the tier of government which has no stake in population is the one saddled with the responsibility of counting them. Perhaps, it could be said that such neutrality enhances or makes for impartiality. But officials of the federal government are not saints from another planet. They are natives of one region, state or ethnic group or the other and therefore, have a partisan interest in the figure of his/her native state/region.
The number of people or houses in any state or region would not have mattered to others if each state or region is self-sustaining economically. But if resources from the people of one region has to be used for other people of another region, especially if done in a disproportionate manner, then the basis or rationale for that decision or practice must be examined in line with time-honoured principle of natural rights. The immediate question is; what is the beneficiary region giving in exchange or in lieu of what it receives? Why do they take or are they given more than the owners of the resources? These questions are digressions but necessary as they relate to population. Why? If population must be used as a basis for revenue sharing or allocation, such figures must be properly authenticated in order to avoid fraudulent claims and unearned revenue or unfair allocation. But can it be claimed that Nigeria has conducted a clean and thorough census since 1960? Has any such exercise utilized the principles and practice of demography and enumeration? Because when vital statistics are taken away from any census, what results is mere figure allocation! Since 1960 or even before then, no government, whether colonial or military has ever conducted a census devoid of partisan political and discriminatory considerations. The result? No government, group or individual can sincerely claim to know the true population of Nigeria. Whatever figures are displayed is at best estimation, guesstimates or simple figure allocation on the basis of projection and assumption. The effect is that the populace has no incentive to be productive because they receive revenue allocation on the basis of their numerical strength their needs or on equality, and not on their productivity or efforts. The contention here is that numerical strength has not been properly determined and so, needs could either be exaggerated or underestimated. And of course, equality has the implication of paying one in excess by short changing the other. Thus, whichever criteria are used other than derivation and productivity, have the tendency of bringing revenue sharing into contentious ruin. Yet, no country could make progress if it does not know how many her citizens and residents are! Knowing the correct population helps planning, budgeting, taxation and allocation or sharing of available resources for the good of the greater number of the people.
But why has enumeration become so controversial that Nigeria has always turned in conspiratorial figures in census exercises? For a honest answer, recourse must be made into the history of past censuses to arrive at genuine answers. Unfortunately however, past census exercises are as controversial and contentious as recent ones. So how do we arrive at the causative factors of census failures in Nigeria?
NIGERIAN CENSUS RETURNS: 1952 – 2006
YEAR NORTH WEST EAST LAGOS ABUJA TOTAL REMARK
1952 17 6 7 0.3 - 30
1962 22 11 12 0.5 - 45 Nullified
1963 30 13 12 0.7 - 56 Disputed
1973 ? ? ? ? - ? Disputed
1991 47 12 24 6 0.4 89 Disputed
2006 72 23 35 9 1.4 140 Disputed
Apart from the 1952 census conducted by the colonial government, the rest were conducted by Nigerians
THOSE WHO PRESIDED OVER CENSUS
YEAR EVENT HEAD OF STATE/GOVERNMENT
1962 & 1963 - Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa
1973 - General Yakubu Gowon
1983 (no census) Alh. Shehu Aliyu Usman Shagari
1991 - General Ibrahim B. Babangida
2001 (no census) Chief Olusegun Obasanjo
2006 - Chief Olusegun Obasanjo
Of the five Nigerian leaders who conducted census during their tenure, four were Northerners while only one was a Southerner. Given the general perception of religion as a “correlation with ethnicity and geographic region”, there was little doubt the various census exercises were tainted with either religious, ethnic and geo-political sentiment or bias-all of which made them disputed and unreliable. What emerged from the foregoing is that ethnic nationality, religious faith and geo-political sentiment constitutes factors of failure or of fraud in all enumeration exercises conducted. In fact, not a few Nigerians faulted the 1952 census by colonial government as they were accused of allocating fake figures to the North with a view of handing over government to them at independence which was eight years away. Therefore, right from before independence, all census as may be deemed to be full of assumption, bias and so, unreliable. What other factors accounted for the unmitigated failure of census in Nigeria?
Emigration
Since the amalgamation of 1914, Nigerians by choice or by force began internal emigration either in colonial service or for trade. Itinerary traders and Cattle shepherds, technocrats and professionals are involved; some of who took up residence in places other than their own lands. Just as the Igbo ethnic nation trades and moves and resides in the West and the North, so Hausa traders and the cattle Fulani moves and resides either in the East or in the West. The Yoruba traders and professionals or academics moves and resides all over Nigeria. This same holds for the over three hundred ethnic nationalities that move away from their abode to other areas to reside and do their business. The fact of the matter is that internal movement is a general phenomenon which gives no special advantage to any region, state or ethnic group. Moreover, in the last two census exercise of 1991 and 2006, two vital components of enumeration were excluded: ethnic group and religion. If ethnicity and religion are unimportant, Nigerians would not have cleaved to their ethnic language, culture and religion to the effect that they fight over them. Is the exclusion of the two components not a subterfuge for manipulation of figures in favour or against any group, be it religious, ethnic or geographical? It is in the light of this fact that last year’s news item by the Empowered Newswire and credited to the Washington based Pew Centres Forum on Religion and Public Life to the effect that 5% of the world’s Muslim population lives in Nigeria caused altercation between Christians and Muslims. How did the research group arrive at their figures and what is their source of information? This type of baseless claims by whosoever is not only mischief making, it further confounded the issue of proper census in the country and drove a wedge between Christians and Muslims. Again, emigration involves people who are either Christians or Muslims and who settles wherever they do, practicing their religion and thereby giving no advantage to any particular religion, except that such emigrants are no longer registered by the local authorities.
Immigration
Many people have immigrated into Nigeria from neighbouring countries for permanent residence. They do so without fulfilling necessary conditions such as resident permit or even international passport and visa where applicable. It is an open secret that Nigeria’s international borders are very porous and manned by corrupt Immigration officials who compromised the laws through gratification from immigrants. For example, the Niger Republic share borders with Sokoto, Kano, Jigawa, Katsina and Yobe States. The Chad Republic shares border with Borno State, while Adamawa and Taraba States, Cross River and Akwa Ibom States share borders with the Republic of Cameroon. Also, Kebbi, Niger, Kwara, Oyo and Ogun States shares common borders with the tiny Republic of Benin. These borders constitute both economic and political problems to Nigeria. How? Nigeria’s western borders pose more economic than political problems; Benin’s importance is not their population (which is about 9 million) but their Sea Port through which smuggling of goods enter into Nigeria. Moreover, the Yoruba is one of the many ethnic groups in Benin Republic, though a small minority. The thriving maritime business does not encourage but rather discourage immigration into Nigeria, thus the assertion that they could constitute only economic headache to Nigeria. The country’s eastern borders are a major inlet for immigrants from Cameroon Republic. Having ceded Bakkasi to Cameroon, immigration from there via Cross River and Akwa Ibom States to Nigeria was never and now not a headache, also bolstered by maritime business via the ocean. The problem area is with the borders with Adamawa and Taraba States and Cameroon through which immigrants enjoy unfettered entry into Nigeria. With Cameroon’s population of over 18 million, the Fulani are as many in Nigeria as they are in Cameroon and recognize no borders between the two countries, crossing either way at will when it suited them. Of course, it is claimed that many of them are encouraged to settle down in Adamawa State in particular and other parts of the North in general. These immigrants are often counted as Nigerians as there is no distinction between the Cameroonian Fulani and their Nigerian Counterpart.
More worrisome is the in-pouring of the Hausa ethnic group of Niger Republic into Nigeria with no let or hindrance. That country is a semi-desert, whose borders with northern-most States of Nigeria are the most unmarked and porous international boundary. Having no resources or industry to sustain them at home, they flock into Nigeria where they are accepted as even more Nigerian than bona fide Nigerians. Through such States as Kano, Sokoto, Katsina and Jigawa, foreign Hausas, immigrated massively into Nigeria yearly to swell the number of the Hausa ethnic group. It is believed that foreign religious mercenaries who often fight in ethno-religious riots in Northern and Central Nigeria are recruited from among them. They are also said to be counted as Nigerians during census years when they are reported to be especially encouraged to come into the country without any constraints.
This on-going illegal immigration in no mall way helped to distort the true population of Nigeria and was the main reason why the National Identity Card project was frustrated. So, when any ethnic group claim that they have outgrown ethnicity and that they are universal residential citizens, is it to enable them roam and claim any land or territory in Nigeria with the aid of their foreign brothers? Meaning that they like to keep and enjoy dual citizenship of both countries while they feel no remorse in despoiling other ethnic groups whose culture and religion differs from their own, since they have another home country to which they often flee when they are forced to. With the combined population of about 45 million people, the Republics of Niger, Cameroon and Chad are the main source of illegal immigrants into Nigeria to the effect that it is estimated that one out of every three Hausa/Fulani in Nigeria are foreigners. If this is not true, the ever porous borders of Nigeria with these countries are a living proof of what is true. All these goes to prove why census exercises in Nigeria have failed woefully and why none may succeed even in the future.
In summary, ethnicity, religion and geo-political regional considerations or factors are responsible for the failure of enumeration in Nigeria. What is the answer? Until Nigeria stops her pretense at federalism and undergo geo-political restructuring along ethnic and territorial basis, true national unity can never be achieved. And as long as Nigeria remains a unitary nation-state, no census will ever succeed. It will always end a wasteful exercise. Conspiratorial Census has never helped any country to unite; on the contrary, it hastens the disintegration of countries that are multi-national, multi-lingual, multi-cultural and multi-ethnic, and Nigeria is one such country.
Rather than be seen as portraying any ethnic group in the negative, this article is a clarion call to all genuine Nigerians to reflect upon the facts deposed herein so that together, we can salvage the country from the path of a failed nation State!
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