Nigeria’s Future: A Doom Foretold?

By Sam Onimisi Harmony is often taken for granted in the affairs of human beings until there is disagreement arising from clash of interest or when one seeks an advantage over the other. When relationship is organized on the principle of mutuality, harmony is most likely to be achieved and retained. Mutuality is easier when a people shares common language, common territory, shared culture and one set of beliefs or religion culminating in a harmonious world view. One may not find all the factors in a polity, but three out of the four factors will make for a near perfect harmony. Based on the foregoing postulation or reasoning, it follows that our country Nigeria lacks the natural ingredients for harmony or mutuality. In language, Nigeria is a polyglot with hundreds of languages. In ethnicity, our country is heterogeneous with hundred of ethnic nationalities. Of religion, this country is polytheistic with many gods or different methods of worship. On territory, Nigeria is an amalgamation of the tropical rain forest, the savannah and the arid or desert regions with varying topography and divergent soils. I stand accused of making a mountain out of a molehill but I beg to plead not guilty until you have heard me out. Now, communication between and among the people of Nigeria is at best defective and at worst dubious because it is done in a borrowed non-Nigerian language. Thus, mutual understanding and trust are impaired while mutual suspicion and mutual antagonism has rich soil and atmosphere to thrive. In effect, Nigeria remains in the abstract in terms of nationhood and worldview and so, the conditions for a Nigerian nation-state to evolve never really existed. It is not as if opportunity never offered itself, but they have been squandered at the altars of ineptitude, greed and sundry presumptions. Flag independence and empty slogan does not make nationhood or a nation-state we have since realized. Let me not presuppose that your understanding of what a nation-state is, is the same with mine and so, we need to seek help. What actually constitutes a nation-state? “A sovereign state of which most of the citizens or subjects are united also by factors which define a nation, such as language or common descent”. Let us try another source for more definition. A nation-state is “a form of political organization under which a relatively homogenous people inhabits a sovereign state; especially, a state containing one as opposed to several nationalities”. Now then, is Nigeria actually a nation-state? I concede to you the liberty to answer the question based on the standard definition of what a nation-state is. Since I am not your teacher and probably not qualified to be, I should not attempt to teach you what to answer, especially now that all the facts are available to you. However, we need to admit to ourselves that the absence of a common native language and because we are of different descents made up of non-homogeneous nationalities, we are only a pseudo nation and so, a pseudo nation-state. Hear a Nigerian nationalist: “Poverty knows no language or ethnic group. The poor is not concerned with religion or with tribe. All he needs is a man who can put food on his table on regular basis”. Whenever I hear this type of talks, I put it down as a campaign speech, a brief attention-getting phrase, and never a statement of truth. People everywhere are concerned with who rules them, what they get or gain or who gets what and how and why. Hear them again: “Nigeria is one united, indissoluble nation”. Watch those who expresses this sentiment; they are among the few who have benefitted most from the unjust access to, and skewed distribution of the commonwealth. Evidence has shown super abundantly that Nigeria is not a nation in the real sense of the word and so, the question of her indissolubility does not arise at all. Are you saying that Nigeria is so united that it cannot dissolve or disintegrate? For me, I will believe you only when you produce a binding agreement between and among the various nationalities which contains the terms and conditions of that unity. Until you do that, I urge you to stop all the pompous presumptions and look into the face of the deadly challenges threatening to tear the country apart. May I refer you to the Holy Book in Amos, chapter three and verse three: “Can two walk together, unless they are agreed?” Where is the agreement of the ethnic nationalities, of the religious faiths and of the linguistic groups to co-habit together under a nation-state? “Excuse me, but we are bound together by the 1999 Constitution.” I s-e-e! Are you? Who put together those who purport to give you the 1999 Constitution? A Constitution is derived from constituencies and so, a legitimate Constitution is one put together and agreed upon by a Constituent Assembly. The 1999 Constitution does not answer to this description and the body of law-makers purporting to amend the 1999 Constitution is products of its illegitimacy. Those who are challenging the Nigerian nation-state from within and with the force of arms are doing so, mostly from their frustration at changing things or getting peoples and things to change. They are aware or conscious of the illegitimacy of the Constitution by which we are governed, they feel un-represented by those presuming to represent them, and they believe that such leaders lack the authority to rule over them or administer the law upon them. If they have not said so in words, they have said it more eloquently in action which speaks louder than words. As if you do not know, and in case you have forgotten, a quick run-down of the challengers will do you some good. The various groups of the Niger-Delta are challenging the economic basis of our nation-state and are calling for a negotiation of the revenue sharing formula to reflect more of derivation than population. Until the advent of amnesty, they resorted to blowing up petroleum pipe-lines and holding hostage foreign oil workers to press for their demands. Fairness demands that we remind ourselves that they had employed peaceful means through agitation and advocacy and when these failed, they then resort to using force. When the Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta (MENDS) evolved, they have concluded that the Nigerian nation-state was impervious to their plight and demands. If in spite of amnesty, the MENDS are still active in sabotaging our oil economy, it shows their dissatisfaction with what they are getting compared to what they need or want. What is in the Nigerian nation-state for the Niger Deltans? Without prior warning or notice the Boko Haram descended on the North, with bombs targeted at Churches, Police Stations and other symbols of governmental authority or institutions. Their grouse? One, they want Islam imposed on the whole of Nigeria; two, they want Christianity obliterated from Nigeria, thus the bombing of the Churches, and uprooting of Christians from their homes even as indigenes of their states. Three, they prefer a theocracy to replace democracy; four, they want political power to remain or return to the North and five, they are against the 13% derivation formula and want it reversed, (at least we have the words of Sanusi Lamido Sanusi on the fifth point). In effect, the Boko Haram threat is the most comprehensive and most violent challenge to the corporate existence of Nigeria thus far, apart from the Civil War. If southerners resident in the North have not all returned home, it is not because they have not been warned to do so; they are probably making arrangement to comply. “Nigeria’s strength lies in her unity in diversity.” They have said so for years, what with a huge harvest of riots, arson and bombings – the ultimate weapon in terrorism. Do not be deceived, the ghost of Biafra is not laid to rest with the body of Odumegwu Ojukwu. The Movement for Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) is a living evidence of the grievances of the Ndigbo against the Nigerian nation-state. That they take to their heels at the approach of a few mobile policemen is not a measure of their strength or weakness. They may be busy turning the stones and weighing the options on how to tackle the Nigerian nation-state. The spasmodic Odua Peoples Congress is fast recovering from the demonic visitation of political mainstreamers that have ravaged the South West for upwards of twelve years. May be when they would have taken stock of their loss or gains occasioned by the activities of the marauding mainstreamers, they would decide to deploy against the Nigerian nation-state: a cudgel, some poisoned bow and arrows or some dozens of antiballistic missiles. As for the Middle-belt people, they seem to have given up on whatever sounds, looks or appears to be North, but yet undecided as to what direction to take beyond rhetoric’s. If you care to ask my view on all this, I will advise the authorities to jettison the moribund unitary system of government, throw-out the super-ordinate relationship between the three tiers of government for a coordinate system in order to save the Nigerian nation-state. In other words, Nigeria needs restructuring and by all means, have Sharia region, oil region, Savannah region, Coastal region etc, and avoid a future doom already foretold.!