CONSPIRATORIAL CENSUS

CONSPIRATORIAL CENSUS

By Sam Onimisi

Census is a count of the population and a property evaluation of a given nation or country. Enumeration is conducted to count or ascertain the number of people or something and to specify them one after another. In conducting a census, vital statistics are essentially as statistics relating to birth, deaths, marriages, health and disease are needed to form a reliable data or foundation basis of enumeration.
In order to be accurate, demographic principles must be applied and, the density, size, distribution and vital statistic of human population constitute demography. The UN stipulates that census need be conducted once every ten yeas in order to ascertain and update the numbers and factors of increase or decrease in a given population.
It is a well known and universally accepted fact that wars, civil strife, famine, epidemic, diseases etc are factors that diminishes population. To enhance population growth, the richness of the soil, the productivity of the inhabitants of a given territory and the technology available to and employed by them are indispensible primary factors. Other factors are social, i.e. the system of marriage in terms of monogamy and polygamy which could multiply child birth. This could be considered to be a secondary factor, in that in Nigeria, anyone is free to marry one or more wives and give birth to as many children as his libido and ability could produce.
Religion is not so much a factor in population decrease or increase since the man who marries more wives may not be as virile or fertile as the man who married only one wife. Fertility therefore is an important factor in reproduction - a phenomenon which defies religious affiliation.
Most unfortunately, the tools or basis of reliable census has never been given priority by public authorities at all tiers of government since independence in 1960. Hardly does any local government council in Nigeria insists, keep or enforce the law or practice of registration of births and deaths, marriages, diseases etc. Neither the local government council nor the state government knows the number of inhabited houses in their territory. Whereas, this statistics are necessary, not only for planning purpose but also for the purpose of taxation. So, if the booming and growing population does not correlate with dwindling tax or internally generated revenue, the reason is not far-fetched. Moreover, census is made the sole responsibility of the federal government which in reality has no territory or population of its own. The import of this is that the tier of government which has no stake in population is the one saddled with the responsibility of counting them. Perhaps, it could be said that such neutrality enhances or makes for impartiality. But officials of the federal government are not saints from another planet. They are natives of one region, state or ethnic group or the other and therefore, have a partisan interest in the figure of his/her native state/region.
The number of people or houses in any state or region would not have mattered to others if each state or region is self-sustaining economically. But if resources from the people of one region has to be used for other people of another region, especially if done in a disproportionate manner, then the basis or rationale for that decision or practice must be examined in line with time-honoured principle of natural rights. The immediate question is; what is the beneficiary region giving in exchange or in lieu of what it receives? Why do they take or are they given more than the owners of the resources? These questions are digressions but necessary as they relate to population. Why? If population must be used as a basis for revenue sharing or allocation, such figures must be properly authenticated in order to avoid fraudulent claims and unearned revenue or unfair allocation. But can it be claimed that Nigeria has conducted a clean and thorough census since 1960? Has any such exercise utilized the principles and practice of demography and enumeration? Because when vital statistics are taken away from any census, what results is mere figure allocation! Since 1960 or even before then, no government, whether colonial or military has ever conducted a census devoid of partisan political and discriminatory considerations. The result? No government, group or individual can sincerely claim to know the true population of Nigeria. Whatever figures are displayed is at best estimation, guesstimates or simple figure allocation on the basis of projection and assumption. The effect is that the populace has no incentive to be productive because they receive revenue allocation on the basis of their numerical strength their needs or on equality, and not on their productivity or efforts. The contention here is that numerical strength has not been properly determined and so, needs could either be exaggerated or underestimated. And of course, equality has the implication of paying one in excess by short changing the other. Thus, whichever criteria are used other than derivation and productivity, have the tendency of bringing revenue sharing into contentious ruin. Yet, no country could make progress if it does not know how many her citizens and residents are! Knowing the correct population helps planning, budgeting, taxation and allocation or sharing of available resources for the good of the greater number of the people.
But why has enumeration become so controversial that Nigeria has always turned in conspiratorial figures in census exercises? For a honest answer, recourse must be made into the history of past censuses to arrive at genuine answers. Unfortunately however, past census exercises are as controversial and contentious as recent ones. So how do we arrive at the causative factors of census failures in Nigeria?
NIGERIAN CENSUS RETURNS: 1952 – 2006
YEAR NORTH WEST EAST LAGOS ABUJA TOTAL REMARK
1952 17 6 7 0.3 - 30
1962 22 11 12 0.5 - 45 Nullified
1963 30 13 12 0.7 - 56 Disputed
1973 ? ? ? ? - ? Disputed
1991 47 12 24 6 0.4 89 Disputed
2006 72 23 35 9 1.4 140 Disputed

Apart from the 1952 census conducted by the colonial government, the rest were conducted by Nigerians
THOSE WHO PRESIDED OVER CENSUS
YEAR EVENT HEAD OF STATE/GOVERNMENT
1962 & 1963 - Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa
1973 - General Yakubu Gowon
1983 (no census) Alh. Shehu Aliyu Usman Shagari
1991 - General Ibrahim B. Babangida
2001 (no census) Chief Olusegun Obasanjo
2006 - Chief Olusegun Obasanjo

Of the five Nigerian leaders who conducted census during their tenure, four were Northerners while only one was a Southerner. Given the general perception of religion as a “correlation with ethnicity and geographic region”, there was little doubt the various census exercises were tainted with either religious, ethnic and geo-political sentiment or bias-all of which made them disputed and unreliable. What emerged from the foregoing is that ethnic nationality, religious faith and geo-political sentiment constitutes factors of failure or of fraud in all enumeration exercises conducted. In fact, not a few Nigerians faulted the 1952 census by colonial government as they were accused of allocating fake figures to the North with a view of handing over government to them at independence which was eight years away. Therefore, right from before independence, all census as may be deemed to be full of assumption, bias and so, unreliable. What other factors accounted for the unmitigated failure of census in Nigeria?
Emigration
Since the amalgamation of 1914, Nigerians by choice or by force began internal emigration either in colonial service or for trade. Itinerary traders and Cattle shepherds, technocrats and professionals are involved; some of who took up residence in places other than their own lands. Just as the Igbo ethnic nation trades and moves and resides in the West and the North, so Hausa traders and the cattle Fulani moves and resides either in the East or in the West. The Yoruba traders and professionals or academics moves and resides all over Nigeria. This same holds for the over three hundred ethnic nationalities that move away from their abode to other areas to reside and do their business. The fact of the matter is that internal movement is a general phenomenon which gives no special advantage to any region, state or ethnic group. Moreover, in the last two census exercise of 1991 and 2006, two vital components of enumeration were excluded: ethnic group and religion. If ethnicity and religion are unimportant, Nigerians would not have cleaved to their ethnic language, culture and religion to the effect that they fight over them. Is the exclusion of the two components not a subterfuge for manipulation of figures in favour or against any group, be it religious, ethnic or geographical? It is in the light of this fact that last year’s news item by the Empowered Newswire and credited to the Washington based Pew Centres Forum on Religion and Public Life to the effect that 5% of the world’s Muslim population lives in Nigeria caused altercation between Christians and Muslims. How did the research group arrive at their figures and what is their source of information? This type of baseless claims by whosoever is not only mischief making, it further confounded the issue of proper census in the country and drove a wedge between Christians and Muslims. Again, emigration involves people who are either Christians or Muslims and who settles wherever they do, practicing their religion and thereby giving no advantage to any particular religion, except that such emigrants are no longer registered by the local authorities.
Immigration
Many people have immigrated into Nigeria from neighbouring countries for permanent residence. They do so without fulfilling necessary conditions such as resident permit or even international passport and visa where applicable. It is an open secret that Nigeria’s international borders are very porous and manned by corrupt Immigration officials who compromised the laws through gratification from immigrants. For example, the Niger Republic share borders with Sokoto, Kano, Jigawa, Katsina and Yobe States. The Chad Republic shares border with Borno State, while Adamawa and Taraba States, Cross River and Akwa Ibom States share borders with the Republic of Cameroon. Also, Kebbi, Niger, Kwara, Oyo and Ogun States shares common borders with the tiny Republic of Benin. These borders constitute both economic and political problems to Nigeria. How? Nigeria’s western borders pose more economic than political problems; Benin’s importance is not their population (which is about 9 million) but their Sea Port through which smuggling of goods enter into Nigeria. Moreover, the Yoruba is one of the many ethnic groups in Benin Republic, though a small minority. The thriving maritime business does not encourage but rather discourage immigration into Nigeria, thus the assertion that they could constitute only economic headache to Nigeria. The country’s eastern borders are a major inlet for immigrants from Cameroon Republic. Having ceded Bakkasi to Cameroon, immigration from there via Cross River and Akwa Ibom States to Nigeria was never and now not a headache, also bolstered by maritime business via the ocean. The problem area is with the borders with Adamawa and Taraba States and Cameroon through which immigrants enjoy unfettered entry into Nigeria. With Cameroon’s population of over 18 million, the Fulani are as many in Nigeria as they are in Cameroon and recognize no borders between the two countries, crossing either way at will when it suited them. Of course, it is claimed that many of them are encouraged to settle down in Adamawa State in particular and other parts of the North in general. These immigrants are often counted as Nigerians as there is no distinction between the Cameroonian Fulani and their Nigerian Counterpart.
More worrisome is the in-pouring of the Hausa ethnic group of Niger Republic into Nigeria with no let or hindrance. That country is a semi-desert, whose borders with northern-most States of Nigeria are the most unmarked and porous international boundary. Having no resources or industry to sustain them at home, they flock into Nigeria where they are accepted as even more Nigerian than bona fide Nigerians. Through such States as Kano, Sokoto, Katsina and Jigawa, foreign Hausas, immigrated massively into Nigeria yearly to swell the number of the Hausa ethnic group. It is believed that foreign religious mercenaries who often fight in ethno-religious riots in Northern and Central Nigeria are recruited from among them. They are also said to be counted as Nigerians during census years when they are reported to be especially encouraged to come into the country without any constraints.
This on-going illegal immigration in no mall way helped to distort the true population of Nigeria and was the main reason why the National Identity Card project was frustrated. So, when any ethnic group claim that they have outgrown ethnicity and that they are universal residential citizens, is it to enable them roam and claim any land or territory in Nigeria with the aid of their foreign brothers? Meaning that they like to keep and enjoy dual citizenship of both countries while they feel no remorse in despoiling other ethnic groups whose culture and religion differs from their own, since they have another home country to which they often flee when they are forced to. With the combined population of about 45 million people, the Republics of Niger, Cameroon and Chad are the main source of illegal immigrants into Nigeria to the effect that it is estimated that one out of every three Hausa/Fulani in Nigeria are foreigners. If this is not true, the ever porous borders of Nigeria with these countries are a living proof of what is true. All these goes to prove why census exercises in Nigeria have failed woefully and why none may succeed even in the future.
In summary, ethnicity, religion and geo-political regional considerations or factors are responsible for the failure of enumeration in Nigeria. What is the answer? Until Nigeria stops her pretense at federalism and undergo geo-political restructuring along ethnic and territorial basis, true national unity can never be achieved. And as long as Nigeria remains a unitary nation-state, no census will ever succeed. It will always end a wasteful exercise. Conspiratorial Census has never helped any country to unite; on the contrary, it hastens the disintegration of countries that are multi-national, multi-lingual, multi-cultural and multi-ethnic, and Nigeria is one such country.
Rather than be seen as portraying any ethnic group in the negative, this article is a clarion call to all genuine Nigerians to reflect upon the facts deposed herein so that together, we can salvage the country from the path of a failed nation State!